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Kentucky started the NCAA Tournament with a 49 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, and, after the Wildcats won their first two games, BPI projects their chances of finishing 40-0 and winning the title at … 49 percent. Kentucky’s chances of winning remained the same in part because the Wildcats were expected to win their first two games. Also, for the most part, the higher seeds on their side of bracket advanced. Gonzaga, because of its favorable Sweet 16 matchup against UCLA (the lowest-rated team remaining), now has the second-best chance to make the Final Four. BPI gives the Bulldogs an 85 percent chance to beat the Bruins, making it the second-most lopsided projected Sweet 16 game, behind Kentucky-West Virginia (93 percent). The closest region is the West, where Arizona and Wisconsin are in a dead heat for the Final Four. Despite Wisconsin ranking higher in BPI, the Badgers have a tougher Sweet 16 matchup (against North Carolina, 12th in BPI) than Arizona (Xavier, 26th in BPI). The most open region is the East, where Oklahoma and Louisville are co-favorites to reach the Final Four at 32 percent each, with Michigan State (24 percent) not far behind. Virginia and Villanova entered the tournament with the fourth- and fifth-best chances to reach the Final Four, so after they were knocked out, Oklahoma and Louisville were the biggest movers the last few days. Teams most helped by opening weekend
The four teams advancing in the East region – Oklahoma, Louisville, Michigan State and North Carolina State – were the biggest beneficiaries of the opening weekend. Not only did they all advance, but they also knocked off the two favorites in the region, resulting in their chances of making the Final Four skyrocketing. NC State: Defying the odds
UCLA is the lowest-seeded team in the Sweet 16, but the most unlikely participant is North Carolina State. At the start of the tournament, BPI gave the Wolfpack an 8.4 percent chance to reach the Sweet 16 because of their low chance to beat Villanova in the Round of 32. Among teams still alive, the next-lowest pre-tournament chances to make the Sweet 16 belonged to UCLA (12.8 percent), Michigan State (13.8 percent) and Xavier (25.3 percent). In the last four NCAA Tournaments, NC State is the third-most unlikely Sweet 16 participant, based on BPI’s pre-tournament projections. The previous three teams to make the Sweet 16 with less than a 10 percent pre-tournament chance did not advance further. BPI chance by conference
The ACC has five teams in the Sweet 16, tying the record for most by a conference (Big East in 2009). There is about a 67 percent chance that the ACC will have at least one of those five teams make the Final Four, with Louisville (32 percent) the most likely participant. Sweet 16 projections
Most lopsided game: Kentucky vs. West Virginia, Kentucky 93 percent chance to win
Closest game: Notre Dame vs. Wichita State, Notre Dame 50.3 percent chance to win
Most unlikely game (based on pre-tournament projections): NC State vs. Louisville, 4 percent chance of occurring
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