Preseason college football ratings historically have been flawed. Team reputations are generally overvalued, and the top historical programs often end up on top. ESPN Stats & Information has again created an automated set of preseason ratings for all FBS teams heading into the 2015 season, designed to predict how strong each team will be this coming season. (More detail on how Preseason FPI is determined is available in this post .)
FPI is an estimate of team strength – not a ranking of who will have the highest win total (which is dependent on schedule) and not who is most likely to make the College Football Playoff. Preseason FPI is calculated using three major components for each FBS team: prior years’ offense, defense and special teams efficiencies; returning starters and head coach information; and recruiting rankings.
Last season, the top three teams in Preseason FPI (Florida State , Oregon and Alabama ) made the inaugural College Football Playoff.
Team FPI FPI Predicted Predicted Predicted Predicted Ohio State 1 27.1 1 16.4 11 9.5 Alabama 2 23.3 17 9.1 2 13.1 TCU 3 22.8 7 11.5 7 10.2 LSU 4 22.6 12 10.1 5 11.2 Baylor 5 21.8 2 14.6 25 7.5 Oregon 6 21.3 3 14.2 29 6.3 Notre Dame 7 20.9 6 11.7 14 9.0 Ole Miss 8 20.6 28 5.4 1 14.1 Georgia 9 20.6 5 12.1 24 7.7 Arkansas 10 20.2 11 10.3 13 9.0 Texas A&M 11 19.9 4 14.2 37 4.7 UCLA 12 19.7 9 10.5 21 8.1 USC 13 19.6 15 9.7 17 8.6 Tennessee 14 18.8 19 7.8 12 9.2 Oklahoma 15 18.3 14 9.7 23 8.0 Michigan State 16 17.4 18 7.9 16 8.8 Stanford 17 17.0 20 7.5 18 8.2 Auburn 18 16.9 22 7.2 15 8.9 Clemson 19 15.3 45 3.3 4 11.6 Arizona State 20 14.6 42 3.8 8 9.9 Florida State 21 13.9 31 5.0 20 8.1 Mississippi State 22 13.2 24 7.0 34 5.7 Georgia Tech 23 13.0 8 10.5 50 2.6 Missouri 24 12.9 36 4.4 26 7.4 Michigan 25 12.3 27 5.6 28 6.6 Virginia Tech 26 12.2 79 -1.2 3 12.0 Texas 27 12.0 57 1.0 6 10.8 Florida 28 11.5 55 1.2 10 9.7 Miami (FL) 29 10.9 40 3.9 30 6.1 Oklahoma State 30 10.7 33 4.9 36 5.0 Boise State 31 10.7 37 4.4 35 5.2 Arizona 32 10.5 25 7.0 42 3.5 West Virginia 33 10.3 51 2.1 19 8.2 Wisconsin 34 10.3 35 4.7 32 6.0 North Carolina 35 9.9 13 9.8 66 0.0 California 36 9.7 16 9.2 59 0.7 Penn State 37 9.5 73 -0.6 9 9.8 Utah 38 9.4 61 0.7 27 7.0 Kansas State 39 8.9 30 5.2 47 2.7 South Carolina 40 8.2 38 4.3 41 4.0 Nebraska 41 7.7 39 4.0 43 3.3 North Carolina State 42 7.6 41 3.9 44 3.3 Pittsburgh 43 7.1 21 7.3 64 0.2 Louisville 44 7.0 59 0.7 31 6.0 Brigham Young 45 7.0 32 5.0 53 1.6 Washington 46 6.8 53 1.5 38 4.4 Texas Tech 47 6.6 10 10.5 83 -2.7 Kentucky 48 5.6 49 2.5 45 3.1 Marshall 49 5.5 34 4.9 63 0.4 Temple 50 4.9 101 -4.9 22 8.0 Vanderbilt 51 3.9 75 -0.8 40 4.1 Cincinnati 52 3.8 23 7.2 85 -3.1 Appalachian State 53 3.5 29 5.2 71 -0.5 Minnesota 54 3.2 65 0.3 51 2.1 Virginia 55 2.5 97 -3.6 33 5.9 Duke 56 2.4 67 0.2 57 1.0 Western Kentucky 57 2.1 26 6.9 100 -4.2 Utah State 58 2.0 81 -1.3 49 2.6 Washington State 59 1.6 46 3.2 72 -0.5 Louisiana Tech 60 1.2 74 -0.6 54 1.4 Western Michigan 61 1.1 43 3.7 79 -2.3 Illinois 62 0.8 58 0.9 69 -0.1 Georgia Southern 63 0.8 44 3.4 80 -2.4 Iowa 64 0.1 91 -2.5 48 2.6 Colorado 65 0.0 62 0.5 70 -0.3 Memphis 66 0.0 64 0.3 76 -1.7 Arkansas State 67 -0.2 47 3.1 86 -3.1 Northwestern 68 -0.6 105 -5.5 39 4.1 Purdue 69 -0.8 83 -1.8 60 0.7 Houston 70 -0.9 76 -0.9 65 0.1 Northern Illinois 71 -1.0 54 1.4 77 -2.1 Toledo 72 -1.0 50 2.3 89 -3.4 UCF 73 -1.4 93 -2.8 56 1.0 Indiana 74 -2.2 63 0.3 78 -2.2 Syracuse 75 -2.2 90 -2.4 62 0.6 Ball State 76 -2.3 68 0.2 84 -3.0 Wake Forest 77 -2.4 104 -5.3 52 2.0 Maryland 78 -2.4 95 -3.1 67 0.0 East Carolina 79 -2.5 52 1.9 95 -3.9 Rutgers 80 -2.5 87 -2.1 75 -1.0 Oregon State 81 -2.9 60 0.7 90 -3.6 Navy 82 -2.9 56 1.1 104 -4.4 San Diego State 83 -3.4 106 -5.5 55 1.2 Boston College 84 -3.6 100 -4.8 58 0.9 Middle Tennessee 85 -4.1 78 -1.2 88 -3.2 Iowa State 86 -4.4 71 -0.2 94 -3.8 Florida International 87 -5.1 120 -8.0 46 2.9 Fresno State 88 -5.6 89 -2.3 87 -3.2 Tulsa 89 -5.7 72 -0.3 113 -5.5 San Jose State 90 -6.0 77 -1.1 92 -3.8 Nevada 91 -6.2 86 -2.0 103 -4.4 Texas State 92 -6.4 80 -1.3 112 -5.5 Bowling Green 93 -6.4 70 -0.2 114 -6.2 Ohio 94 -6.6 98 -4.2 81 -2.5 Louisiana-Lafayette 95 -6.7 84 -1.9 105 -4.4 Rice 96 -6.7 82 -1.4 111 -5.4 Tulane 97 -7.2 113 -6.9 68 0.0 Massachusetts 98 -7.4 66 0.2 115 -6.3 Central Michigan 99 -7.5 92 -2.8 93 -3.8 Air Force 100 -7.7 94 -3.0 108 -5.0 South Florida 101 -7.8 116 -7.2 74 -0.7 Colorado State 102 -8.0 96 -3.2 106 -4.8 Old Dominion 103 -8.9 48 3.0 127 -10.5 Kent State 104 -9.7 107 -6.1 91 -3.7 New Mexico 105 -9.8 69 -0.1 124 -9.7 Louisiana-Monroe 106 -10.1 125 -10.3 61 0.7 Southern Miss 107 -10.1 85 -2.0 119 -7.9 Florida Atlantic 108 -10.2 99 -4.6 107 -5.0 North Texas 109 -10.7 108 -6.1 110 -5.1 Southern Methodist 110 -10.9 115 -7.0 96 -3.9 UTEP 111 -10.9 117 -7.4 99 -4.1 Hawaii 112 -10.9 111 -6.7 109 -5.1 Kansas 113 -11.0 118 -7.8 82 -2.6 South Alabama 114 -12.8 121 -8.4 102 -4.3 Akron 115 -13.1 122 -8.6 98 -4.1 New Mexico State 116 -13.5 103 -5.1 116 -6.8 Georgia State 117 -13.7 88 -2.2 126 -10.1 Connecticut 118 -13.9 128 -13.2 73 -0.7 UTSA 119 -14.2 124 -9.9 97 -4.0 Buffalo 120 -14.4 102 -4.9 120 -8.7 Wyoming 121 -15.3 112 -6.7 117 -7.4 Miami (OH) 122 -15.5 126 -10.5 101 -4.2 Troy 123 -15.7 110 -6.6 121 -8.8 Idaho 124 -17.0 114 -7.0 122 -9.5 UNLV 125 -18.8 123 -8.7 125 -9.8 Charlotte 126 -18.9 119 -7.9 123 -9.6 Army 127 -19.1 109 -6.5 128 -11.5 Eastern Michigan 128 -20.7 127 -11.8 118 -7.5
