Ben Alamar, ESPN Stats & Information 9y

4-Point Play: Clippers at Spurs

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The Clippers visit San Antonio looking for their first win over the Spurs this season (9 ET, ESPN).

The 4-Point Play looks at the four analytics-based storylines that will make you smarter when watching Saturday’s game between the San Antonio Spurs (4th in BPI) and the Los Angeles Clippers (2nd in BPI). Our BPI gives the Spurs a 61 percent chance of winning.

1. Chris Paul is third in the NBA in assist percentage, assisting on an average of 41 percent of his teammates' field goals. The Clippers need him to perform at that elite level. When Paul has an assist percentage greater than 40 percent, the Clippers win 76 percent of their games, compared to winning just 65 percent of games when he is below 40 percent.

2. The Clippers' offense is the best in the league, and has ramped up its mid-range game this year. They are at their best, however, minimizing those mid-range shots. When they get 20 percent or fewer of their points from mid-range shots, they score 112 point per 100 possessions. When they get more than that, they score 108 points per 100 possessions.

3. The Spurs are known for their passing, and 91 percent of their made threes are assisted (league average is 84 percent). When the Spurs have 90 percent or more of their made threes assisted, they have won 73 percent of their games. When they are below 90 percent, they have won 65 percent.

4. The Spurs have been surviving on a smart defense that rebounds well (77 defensive rebound percentage). They have kept opponents off of the foul line (average of 0.26 Opp Free Throw Rate). The Spurs have not lost a game this season when they are rebounding and fouling at the average levels or better.

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