Sharon Katz, ESPN Analytics 9y

BPI viewer's guide to weekend action

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Virginia tries to remain perfect against Duke in this weekend's top matchup.

This weekend’s slate is highlighted by two double-ranked ACC matchups and a Missouri Valley Conference game with conference title implications.

Using ESPN's Basketball Power Index below are the five “can’t miss” games of the weekend.

Duke Blue Devils (8th in BPI) at Virginia Cavaliers (2nd in BPI)

Saturday, 7 PM ET on ESPN

BPI Projection: Virginia, 86 percent likely to win

Matchup Quality: 90.3

Can Duke knock off Virginia? BPI sees this game as a larger mismatch than most, which is more a statement about Virginia's strength than an indictment of Duke.

Playing at the second-slowest pace in the country, Virginia may not be considered the most exciting team in Division I, but it is one of the most efficient. The Cavaliers rank second in net efficiency behind Kentucky and are holding opponents to a stifling 83.5 points per 100 possessions, which is on pace for the third-best rate in the last four seasons. They also rank 13th in offensive efficiency, making them one of two teams to rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (Utah is the other).

Virginia has the highest BPI in the country in conference games, but we will learn a lot about the Cavaliers in their next three ACC tilts (vs Duke, at UNC, vs Louisville). According to BPI’s projections, Virginia has a 45 percent chance to come out of that stretch unscathed and a 20 percent chance to finish the regular season undefeated.

North Carolina Tar Heels (6th in BPI) at Louisville Cardinals (10th in BPI)

Saturday, 4 PM ET on ESPN

BPI Projection: Louisville, 60 percent likely to win

Matchup Quality: 87.2

As the only team in the BPI top 10 with four or more losses, North Carolina has been BPI’s outlier this season. BPI accounts for the fact that the Tar Heels have played the eighth-hardest schedule and have five wins against top-50 opponents. Louisville, in comparison, has lost its last three games against top-50 foes, including a 72-71 loss at UNC in early January.

One thing to watch Saturday is if Louisville can contain North Carolina’s big men on the offensive end. UNC averages the most points in the paint per game (38.8) among major conference teams and outscored the Cardinals 40-26 in the paint in their first meeting.

Wichita State Shockers (13th in BPI) at Northern Iowa Panthers (17th in BPI)

Saturday, 4 PM ET on ESPN2

BPI Projection: Northern Iowa, 57 percent likely to win

Matchup Quality: 84.4

Wichita State and Northern Iowa each enter this game 19-2 and in the top 20 of BPI. No other team from the Missouri Valley Conference ranks in the top 60 of BPI. Both teams have been consistent throughout the season, and if not for two close losses, either could be undefeated.

BPI currently projects that Wichita State should be a 4-seed and Northern Iowa a 5-seed in the NCAA tournament at this point in the season. The Missouri Valley Conference has not had two top-7 seeds in the same year since the tournament expanded in 1985.

Alabama Crimson Tide (56th in BPI) at Kentucky Wildcats (1st in BPI)

Saturday, 7 PM ET on SEC Network

BPI Projection: Kentucky, 98 percent likely to win

Matchup Quality: 82.7

Kentucky leads the nation with a 94.9 BPI rating. Since the first year of BPI (2011-2012), no team has had a BPI rating that high at this point in the season. The Wildcats are allowing 77.6 points per 100 possessions, on pace for the best defensive efficiency in the last 15 seasons. They also lead the nation in net efficiency by a wide margin.

Meanwhile, Alabama (13-7) may be stronger than its record suggests. Four of Alabama’s seven losses have been by two points or fewer; only Cal State Bakersfield has more one- or two-point losses than the Tide.

If Kentucky can get past Alabama, it will be one step closer to an undefeated regular season – one that BPI projects they have a 48 percent chance to accomplish.

Wisconsin Badgers (5th in BPI) at Iowa Hawkeyes (47th in BPI)

Saturday, 12 PM ET on ESPN

BPI Projection: Wisconsin, 74 percent likely to win

Matchup Quality: 81.6

After Wisconsin’s 32-point rout of Iowa on January 20, the Hawkeyes are looking for revenge. First they must shore up their defense; the Badgers averaged 1.5 points per possession against Iowa, their most efficient game in the last four seasons, and turned the ball over once in 54 possessions.

The Badgers received a 99.5 Game BPI score against Iowa, making it the “best win” of the season for a Big Ten team. The path to repeating that performance will be difficult in Iowa City, where the Hawkeyes are 10-2 this season.

Note: The games are ranked by Matchup Quality, a metric that ranks games on a 0-to-100 scale based on how good each team is and how close the game is expected to be.

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