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          Stats & Info

          What's on the line in Kentucky-Louisville?

          • Sharon Katz & Jeremy Mills
          Dec 26, 2014, 10:34 AM ET

          In the final scheduled non-conference matchup between current top-five teams, No. 1 Kentucky faces No. 4 Louisville on Saturday (2 ET, ESPN2).

          When these rivals face off, there will be more than in-state bragging rights on the line. The Wildcats and Cardinals are two of eight remaining undefeated teams and are looking to make a statement before conference play.

          With the caveat that it’s a long season with plenty of twists and turns, what is on the line Saturday?

          Possible Kentucky Undefeated Season

          According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, Kentucky has a 23 percent chance to finish the regular season undefeated.

          Kentucky’s Toughest Remaining Games
          According to ESPN’s BPI

          To add some context, Virginia currently has the second-best chance to go undefeated, according to BPI, at four percent.

          Louisville – the No. 6 team in BPI – is by far the Wildcats’ toughest test.

          BPI projects that Kentucky has a 69 percent chance of winning at Louisville Saturday. Against every other opponent on its schedule, BPI projects that Kentucky has at least an 80 percent chance to win.

          If Kentucky can get by Louisville, its chances for an undefeated season will rise to approximately 33 percent.

          A 1-in-3 chance is by no means a sure thing, but there is no doubt that Louisville is Kentucky’s toughest remaining opponent.

          As for where will Kentucky may have the most trouble:

          • Despite its size, Kentucky has struggled on the defensive glass this season. The Wildcats only grab 66.5 percent of their defensive rebound opportunities, which is 277th in Division I.

          While that hasn’t hurt them so far this season, Louisville is well positioned to exploit that weakness. Louisville is 16th in Division I in offensive rebounding percentage at 40.2 percent. And the Cardinals average 15.1 second-chance points per game, which is third among major conference teams.

          • Kentucky has blocked 8.7 shots per game this season, nearly one more shot per game than any other team in Division I. All told, the Wildcats block 15.8 percent of their opponents' shots, best in Division I.

          But Louisville has been great at avoiding blocked shots – only 21 shots by the Cardinals have been blocked this season. Their block percentage of 3.2 percent is tied for the fourth-lowest in Division I.

          • This is Kentucky’s first trip into hostile territory this season, and that’s been a problem recently. The Wildcats have lost their first road game at a major conference opponent in each of the last four seasons, including a loss at Indiana in 2011-12 that was one of only two Kentucky losses all season.

          • Each of the last five meetings between these schools has been decided by single digits. That’s a stark contrast to Kentucky’s Division I best +29.1 scoring margin this season.

          That means that free throw shooting could be the key, and the Wildcats have struggled on the line. Kentucky has made 66 percent of its free throws this season, tied for 253rd in Division I.

          Title of Best Defense in the Nation

          Kentucky and Louisville rank first and second, respectively, in defensive efficiency, which measure the points a defense allows per 100 possessions.

          Although both defenses are smothering, they excel in different areas:

          Best Defensive Efficiency - This Season

          • Kentucky is allowing the lowest field goal percentage (30.0 percent) and effective field goal percentage (34.6 percent) in the nation.

          • Kentucky leads the nation in blocks (104) and block percentage (15.8 percent). The Cardinals are allowing 18.5 points per game in the paint, fourth-best among major conference schools.

          • Louisville is forcing 19 turnovers per game, fifth-best in the nation, and ranks ninth in percentage of opponents’ possessions ending in a turnover (26.5 percent)

          • Similarly, Louisville ranks fifth in steal percentage (15 percent) and is one of four teams averaging 11 or more steals per game.

          On Saturday, the matchup to watch will be Willie Cauley-Stein against Montrezl Harrell. Both players are in the early conversation for national player of the year. Stein ranks second and Harrell ranks 15th in defensive rating - an estimate of how many points a player allows per 100 possessions.