<
        >

          NFL Nation

          Morning Ram-blings: Stats point to Rams' improvement

          • Nick Wagoner, ESPN Staff WriterMay 25, 2015, 08:00 AM ET
            Close
              Nick Wagoner is an NFL reporter at ESPN. Nick has covered the San Francisco 49ers and the NFL at ESPN since 2016, having previously covered the St. Louis Rams for 12 years, including three years (2013 to 2015) at ESPN. In his 10 years with the company, Nick has led ESPN's coverage of the Niners' 2019 Super Bowl run, Colin Kaepernick's protest, the Rams making Michael Sam the first openly gay player drafted to the NFL, Sam's subsequent pursuit of a roster spot and the team's relocation and stadium saga. You can follow Nick via Twitter @nwagoner
            Follow on X

          EARTH CITY, Mo. -- Over at Grantland.com, Bill Barnwell has an annual tradition of diving into some of the previous season's numbers to search for teams poised to improve or decline the following season.

          Statistics from a previous season aren't always an indicator of what will happen the next year, but Barnwell aims to find some statistical anomalies that could be corrected and, in turn, yield better results for some teams and a decline for others.

          This year, Barnwell's deep dive offers some hope for fans of the St. Louis Rams.

          In one section, Barnwell points to point differential as a function of pythagorean expectation of records. The Rams had a pythagorean differential of -1.2 last year, ranking only behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Giants and Tennessee Titans as teams that didn't reach their expected wins based on their point differential. Theoretically, that should normalize, but the Rams' point differential was a little skewed by the blowout win against the Oakland Raiders.

          The more likely-to-change stat that sticks out like a sore thumb is, of course, points allowed by the offense. It's no secret the Rams had a bad habit of giving up defensive touchdowns last season. It's also no secret they were 0-8 in games in which they allowed a defensive touchdown (plus a kick return for a score by the Kansas City Chiefs).

          For the Rams, the hope is that a new quarterback in Nick Foles will offer better ball security and those types of costly errors can be mostly eliminated. There's no way to project these things from year to year, but it's probably a safe bet the Rams won't allow 48 points while playing offense again. That should be at least a starting point for improvement in 2015.

          I.C.Y.M.I.

          A roundup of the weekend's Rams stories appearing on ESPN.com. ... The Rams came in at No. 19 in the most recent Uni Watch rankings. ... The Rams are eligible but unlikely to participate in this year's "Hard Knocks." ... Will the Rams look to go for two more in 2015? ... In the first part of our weekend mailbag, we discussed potential breakout candidates for the Rams this season. ... In the second part of the mailbag, we revisited Joe Barksdale's move to San Diego and discussed more offensive line possibilities.

          Elsewhere:

          ESPN NFL Nation Chargers reporter Eric Williams examines the possible relocation fees for the Chargers, Raiders and Rams.

          Interesting read from Jeffri Chadiha on some of the more memorable injuries around the NFL.

          Michael Sam signed a two-year deal with the Montreal Alouettes to play in the Canadian Football League.

          101sports.com looks at recent news on the Rams and relocation.

          At stltoday.com, Bernie Miklasz writes that St. Louis getting financing together on a stadium guarantees nothing for keeping the NFL in the city.