Two in-state SEC West rivalry games will be played this weekend, and the stakes for both games are at an all-time high. Alabama and Mississippi State are tied atop the SEC West standings with a 10-1 overall record, and as of last week’s rankings, both are in position to receive a bid to the inaugural College Football Playoff. All that stands in the way of glory is each team’s fiercest rival.

Either Alabama or Mississippi State will play for the SEC championship regardless of how this weekend’s games shake out, but if both teams are saddled with a two-loss record at the end of the year, the door will swing wide open for other playoff contenders. We forecasted the probability of this scenario back in early September, at the time predicting a 14 percent chance that no SEC team will finish the season with fewer than two losses. That number remains 14 percent heading into this weekend, the likelihood that both Alabama and Mississippi State will lose on Saturday, according to our latest FEI ratings projections. There is a 66 percent chance one of the two will lose.

If the schedules had worked out a bit differently, they might all have two losses already.