Alex Scarborough, ESPN Staff Writer 9y

Why Mississippi State will -- or won't -- live up to last year's success

Can Mississippi State do it again?

That’s the question on everyone’s minds, isn’t it? Aren’t we all wondering whether last season’s historic run to the Orange Bowl was a sign of things to come or a flash in pan?

There’s a lot to like about this year’s squad, but there’s a lot of doubt out there for a reason. The Bulldogs are being picked by many to finish last in the SEC West, and it’s not without merit.

Before we dive into Mississippi State’s prospects this season, here’s a look back at the rest of the series on the SEC.

Why Mississippi State will live up to last year's success:

  • Dak Prescott: Alabama doesn’t have a proven quarterback. Neither does Auburn, Ole Miss or LSU. So what’s wrong with this picture? Why are all four of those teams expected to do better than Mississippi State? All the Bulldogs have is a QB who finished eighth in the Heisman Trophy balloting last year and nonetheless decided he wanted to come back for his senior season. If you have the best player in the conference at the most important position, you think you’d get more respect. But it looks as if Mississippi State and Prescott will have to prove it again in 2015.

  • Continuity on defense: Yes, you read that correctly. Mississippi State’s defense, despite losing coordinator Geoff Collins to Florida and seven starters to the draft and/or graduation, has continuity. That’s what happens when you play your second-stringers upward of 30 percent of snaps and you bring back defensive coordinator Manny Diaz after four years away. Richie Brown isn’t technically a returning starter, but he was sixth on the team in tackles last year. Chris Jones isn’t technically a returning starter either, but he has been the Bulldogs’ most talented defensive linemen for the past two seasons. Whether it’s Will Redmond, Kendrick Market or Nick James, the list goes on and on.

  • Scheduling: It’s always a scary proposition to look at the schedule and count wins and losses in July, but here we are anyway. It can’t be helped. You can’t help but see a nonconference slate of Southern Miss, Northwestern State, Troy and Louisiana Tech, and see the W's. You look at the draw from the East being Kentucky and Missouri, and see the prospect for more of the same. That’s five or six wins right there. The bye week could be better positioned, but you have to like that they get a cupcake in Northwestern State before going to Auburn in late September. And if you’re going to play LSU, you want to have the advantage of playing them at home and early in the season, which State will enjoy. Overall, it’s not a bad road map to nine wins.

Why Mississippi State won’t live up to last year's success:

  • Shaky offensive line: It’s no secret that a strong, experienced line leads to a successful season. Go and look at the past SEC champions and you’ll find that out. Mississippi State didn’t win the conference last year, but the Bulldogs rode seniors Ben Beckwith, Dillon Day and Blaine Clausell to a five-week stint as the nation’s No. 1-ranked team. But now they’re all gone and only Justin Malone and Justin Senior remain. When your center is new, your running game could suffer. When your left tackle is new, your quarterback could be in for trouble. Any way you put it, that’s a scary situation for Mississippi State’s offense.

  • The rest of the West: There are no doormats in the West. The usual suspects (Alabama, Auburn, LSU) expect to make it to Atlanta, but so do Ole Miss and Arkansas. While you could reasonably predict that Mississippi State would win a few of those games, you can’t in good faith expect them to win them all. The offensive line and secondary will be too much of a problem. Prescott, for as good as he can be, can’t be expected to do it all. Eventually he’ll wear down as he did late last season. If he misses any significant time with an injury, they’re done. A lot went right for State to have the season it did last year. A lot of breaks went their way. With so many other talented teams in the division again, the Bulldogs could be just as good as last year and win fewer games.

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