PHILADELPHIA -- The Philadelphia Eagles have an "internal number" that they would consider too much to pay to trade up in the draft for quarterback Marcus Mariota.
That was the way Ed Marynowitz, the team’s new vice president of player personnel, put it in a meeting with reporters Thursday.
Head coach Chip Kelly has said he wouldn’t "mortgage the future" for any player, including Mariota.
But what is mortgaging the future? How much is too much if you’re getting a franchise quarterback?
The answer seems simple enough. There is no price too high to get a franchise quarterback capable of winning a Super Bowl. But if you use a premium draft pick on a quarterback -- whether you trade up to get him or simply use your own pick -- your franchise is in trouble if you don’t choose wisely.
The classic cautionary tale right now is Washington’s 2012 move to get Robert Griffin III. Washington traded three first-round picks (2012, 2013, 2014) and a second-round pick in 2012 to move up from the sixth spot in the draft to the No. 2 spot.
Griffin’s career has been disappointing so far, partly because of injuries and partly because of performance. But what if Washington had taken Russell Wilson -- who was drafted in the third round in 2012 -- instead of Griffin? Would that trade be considered such a mistake then?
And if it’s franchise-destroying to give up four high picks for a quarterback, then why aren’t the St. Louis Rams, who received all those picks, the dominant team in the NFC West right now? Answer: Because Seattle has Wilson and because, when the Rams had the No. 1 overall pick in 2010, they used it on Sam Bradford.
Injuries and coaching changes kept Bradford from living up to his promise in St. Louis. The Rams still haven’t recovered.
And that’s the point: When you use a premium pick on a quarterback and it doesn’t work out well, it sets your franchise back for years.
In 1998, the Indianapolis Colts took Peyton Manning with the first pick in the draft. The San Diego Chargers took Ryan Leaf. The Colts went on to a decade of success, including a Super Bowl title. The Chargers didn’t finish above .500 for six years, when they finally landed Drew Brees as their quarterback.
In 1999, quarterbacks went with the top three picks. Cleveland took Tim Couch and posted one winning record over the next eight seasons. The Browns have played in one playoff game (a loss) since drafting Couch. The Cincinnati Bengals took Akili Smith with the third pick and did not have a winning record until 2005, when they had Carson Palmer at quarterback.
In between, the Eagles selected Donovan McNabb and were in the NFC Championship Game five times in the next nine years.
In 2001, Atlanta took Michael Vick with the first overall pick. Vick is a unique case. His early promise was evident. The Falcons won a playoff game at Lambeau Field in Vick’s second season and played in the NFC title game in his third. But Vick’s involvement in a dog-fighting ring landed him in prison and sent the Falcons into a tailspin. Drafting Matt Ryan in 2008 helped pull them out of it.
In 2002, David Carr went No. 1 overall and Joey Harrington went third. The less said about them, the better.
Except for Wilson and Colin Kaepernick, no quarterback drafted after 2008 has played in a Super Bowl. No Matthew Stafford, no Cam Newton, no Andrew Luck -- at least not yet. They were all the No. 1 overall picks in their draft classes. So was JaMarcus Russell in 2007 and Alex Smith in 2005.
But No. 11 pick (in 2004) Ben Roethlisberger has played in two Super Bowls. Aaron Rodgers (24th pick in ’05) and Joe Flacco (18th in ’08) have each won one.
And then, of course, there is Tom Brady, the sixth-round pick from 2000 who has four Super Bowl rings.
The bottom line: It isn’t "mortgaging the future" if you find the right quarterback. But it is destroying your future if you commit too much for the wrong quarterback. And there are plenty of wrong ones out there.