Chantel JenningsTed Miller 9y

Take Two: Is Oregon a preseason top-10 team?

In Mark Schlabach’s Way Too Early Top 25 for the 2015-16 season, he had Oregon listed as the No. 5 team.

Six Pac-12 teams were listed in the Top 25 which got our writers talking. Was it too high? Too low? Just right? Turns out Ted Miller thought it was just right and Chantel Jennings thought it was too high.

So, let the Goldilocks debate begin…

Miller: Before we look at what Oregon has coming back in 2015, let’s look at who the Ducks are in the big picture: Oregon has become one of THOSE programs.

Oregon has won at least 10 games and finished ranked in the top-11 for seven consecutive years. It has finished ranked in the top five in four of the past five years. When we write that Oregon is one of THOSE programs, we mean that you put the Ducks in the preseason top 10 without much in-depth analysis just because the odds overwhelmingly favor you ending up being correct. And we all want to end up being correct.

Unless I am picking Oregon football games, but that is another matter entirely.

Now I know Oregon must replace the greatest player in program history, quarterback Marcus Mariota, at the most important position. That won’t be easy. But the Ducks played for a national title in 2010 without Mariota and won 44 games over the four seasons before Mariota lined up behind center. The Ducks became one of THOSE programs before Mariota. They will remain that way when he jumps to the NFL.

Yet the Ducks even merit a top-10 ranking if you don’t grant them special privileges as one of THOSE programs. The offense welcomes back the nation’s best set of skill players at running back, receiver and tight end. The offensive line loses three starters, but it welcomes back seven guys with starting experience. The defense takes hits at all three levels, but there is young talent that might actually give the Ducks an upgrade athletically, particularly in the secondary.

When I look at the likely 2015 depth charts of potential top-10 teams, I see Ohio State and TCU looking pretty darn salty. After that, most teams have at least a couple of big questions, just like Oregon.

But the Ducks merit a high preseason ranking based on what is coming back as well as for their earned status as being one of THOSE programs.

We all want to end up correct, right?

Jennings: I’ll agree with you on one thing, Ted: After Ohio State and TCU the other eight teams are kind of a toss up. But even with that, I’m not sure Oregon should really be in the top 10.

I like how you glossed over the whole “No Marcus Mariota” issue in a quaint 24 words but I think it merits more than that. No matter what way you toss -- redshirt freshman, redshirt junior, transfer player -- the Ducks’ signal caller next year is going to be inexperienced in Oregon’s system. I haven’t been sold on Jeff Lockie yet. Yes, the third-string QB thing worked for Ohio State last season but that’s the exception, not the rule. I don’t think Oregon has a QB on its roster that is as talented as the Buckeyes’ third-string guy (whomever that might be now).

Just look at last year’s Way Too Early Top 25. Of those 10 teams, six finished in the final AP poll of the 2014 season, meaning four did not. When looking at a QB comparison of those two groups, it’s pretty stark.

The average adjusted QBR of teams that didn’t finish in the top 10 was 68.4 while the average adjusted QBR of teams that did finish in the top 10 was 81.3. So yes, Oregon loses its best player ever at the most important position and it’s a position that has proven to be one that keeps teams in or drops them out of the top 10. Show me a QB on Oregon’s roster that can keep it in a game or the top 10 and maybe I’ll take back this point. But I haven’t seen it yet.

Past that, I’m not sold on the other offensive playmakers either. Yes, the Ducks are stocked at running back but at wide receiver? Not as much. I was impressed with Charles Nelson during the latter part of the season but we’ll see how he does once opponents really start to game plan against him. Can he be as effective?

And we’ll see if or how much Devon Allen's injury hampers him. Darren Carrington is a question mark. Bralon Addison missed an entire season which is either going to make him really hungry or really rusty.

Then defensively, Oregon loses its two best players in the secondary, a huge part of its linebacker group and its most athletic pass-rusher. This is not a plug-and-play defense and it’ll be another mismatched group of veterans and youth next year. We saw what that provided this season -- lots of miscommunications with lots of big plays given up.

This year, the Ducks had Mariota to make up for that. Next year, they won’t.

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