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How Cardinals can beat Seahawks

TEMPE, Ariz. -- Earlier Friday, I wrote about why I predicted the Arizona Cardinals to lose Sunday night to the Seattle Seahawks.

I had plenty of reasons to choose from, and the argument was easy to qualify.

However, I also believe there's a fair and strong argument to make for a Cardinals victory, which would secure them the NFC West title and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, even with a third-string quarterback. It centers on Arizona's rushing game.

The Cardinals have rushed for 284 yards (141 against the Kansas City Chiefs, 143 against the St. Louis Rams) in their last two games, which equals 24 percent of their run total this season. Arizona has committed to the run the last two weeks without Andre Ellington, who was placed on injured reserve Dec. 8 with a slew of injuries.

The Seahawks have struggled when teams can run the ball on them.

They've allowed at least 101 yards in each of their four losses this season (101 to San Diego, 162 to Dallas, 102 to St. Louis and 190 to Kansas City). Even when they've won and given up 100 yards rushing, it hasn't been easy for Seattle. The Seahawks allowed 114 yards to Carolina in a 13-9 win in Week 8 and 140 to San Francisco last week in a 17-7 win.

The more Arizona can run Sunday night, the more the Cardinals can shorten the game, offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin said.

Head coach Bruce Arians said Arizona needs to stick with its game plan, regardless of how the run game plays out.

"The big thing is if you have negative runs, which we've stayed away from those, is not get away from it," Arians said.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, Arizona has 38 negative runs this season, and five came in the last two games.

"You always want positive yardage," running back Kerwynn Williams said. "That's the big thing I look for. I always want to be going forward. I never want to get tackled behind the line of scrimmage. And fortunately I've been able to do that these last few weeks."

He's been tackled for a loss just once this season, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Williams' 5.2 yards per carry average is the second-highest in the NFL among the nine backs who are averaging at least 17 carries per game the last two weeks.

"I think as an offensive lineman or a tight end, whoever's blocking, and you see that guy coming out of the other side, it gives you energy to keep blocking," Goodwin said. "So hopefully we keep that momentum. It's been pretty hot the last two weeks."

Other reasons I believe Arizona could beat Seattle:

  • The Cardinals are 7-0 at home this season, one of four undefeated teams at home, and play significantly better than on the road, averaging 22.4 points compared to 18.6. Their point margin at home is plus-52. On the road it's minus-9. Seattle has its own struggles away from home in NFC West games the last three seasons, going 3-5 but it's averaging 18.1 points per game while giving up 16.6.

  • The Cardinals are 5-0 in games decided by eight points or fewer this season. They have the best record in the league under those circumstances and are tied for most wins. "We never panic," Goodwin said. "And that's been the biggest thing all year. No matter if we're down by 10 in Dallas ... we never panic. We just stay the course. Coach [Arians] says it every week. It's a 60-minute game so that's what we play."

  • Seattle's Russell Wilson has a 42.4 QBR against the Cardinals' blitz in his career and 67.7 aginst everybody else's pressure. He's been blitzed on at least half of his dropbacks in every game he's faced the Cardinals. In last season's loss to Arizona, he posted a career-low 11.5 QBR. Yet when he was blitzed on 47 percent of his dropbacks in a Week 12 win over Arizona, Wilson was 5-for-6 passing for 70 yards and a touchdown.