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Ready or not, here comes Masahiro Tanaka

FT. MYERS, Fla. -- For Masahiro Tanaka, there are no more rehearsals. Six days from today, it's the real thing, a game that counts against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium. A game that might give a real glimpse into his -- and the Yankees' -- chances for a better 2015 season than either of them had in 2014.

Is he ready for it?

"I think so, yeah,'' manager Joe Girardi said after Tanaka started, and took the loss, in Tuesday's game against the Minnesota Twins, a 3-1 victory for the home team at Hammond Stadium.

But is Tanaka the same pitcher he was at this time last spring, when he was all promise and not a bit of worry?

"I think so,'' Girardi said again. "We're not going to know though, are we?''

He meant until the games start counting and Tanaka starts throwing all out. We certainly can't tell all that much from this spring, and hopefully for the Yankees, from his last outing before Opening Day.

Tanaka's final tuneup, against a Twins lineup minus Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Torii Hunter, Oswaldo Arcia, Kurt Suzuki and Trevor Plouffe, was not particularly encouraging: 4 1/3 innings, seven hits, no walks and perhaps most disturbingly of all, only one strikeout.

One of those hits was a long home run by Eduardo Escobar. Two others were doubles, one by Adam Brett Walker, who played in A ball last year. Tanaka's velocity hit 92 MPH once during the game, 91 twice, and 90 seven other times, still several ticks down from where he was last season before he suffered the partially-torn UCL that put his, and the Yankees', 2015 season in doubt.

By his own admission, Tanaka went back to throwing his four-seam fastball today -- the foundation of any pitcher's arsenal -- and insisted he had not held back anything this spring. And it wasn't because of the workload; he had an extra day's rest before three of his four starts this spring, and two extra day's rest before the fourth.

"I didn’t have anything in mind as far as saving bullets or anything like that,'' he said. "I had that elbow injury last season, so obviously because of that I was taking things slow, but no, I wasn't holding anything back.''

Viewed through that prism, today's gun readings don't seem quite so impressive. It makes you wonder if what Tanaka has shown this spring is basically all he has left after an injury that sends most pitchers for Tommy John surgery.

Because you can argue endlessly about the relative meaning of spring training statistics, but you can't argue this: Tanaka was a much better pitcher last spring than he was this spring. He was also a much busier pitcher, no doubt a concession to his compromised elbow by the Yankees.

Last spring, Tanaka made five appearances (three starts), threw 21 innings, allowed 15 hits, five earned runs, walked three and struck out 26. His spring ERA was 2.14. He followed up that spring with a Cy Young-caliber first half -- 11-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 99 2/3 innings in his first 14 starts, before succumbing to the UCL tear four starts later.

This spring, Tanaka's workload was cut back to just 14 2/3 innings. And yet, he allowed nearly as many hits (13), the same number of earned runs, and struck out 13. His spring ERA was 3.07. It wasn't a terrible spring. Neither was it the kind of spring you would like to see from the pitcher upon whose elbow most of your hopes for the season are resting upon.

Asked what it would mean to his team to have the Tanaka of the first half of 2014 back, Girardi said: "It means a lot. I mean, if he can do that. You know, his numbers are pretty darned good, let’s face it. Those aren’t easy numbers for anyone every year, but it would really help us.''

Conversely, it will mean just as much in a negative way if Tanaka is significantly less the pitcher than he was a year ago. Or, if after a couple of regular-season starts, he just can't go anymore.

"You never know with pitchers today,'' Girardi said.

What he does know is that the UCL tear is still there -- they do not heal on their own -- and admitted that just getting Tanaka through the spring relatively healthy was a victory in itself.

"It’s better than the alternative,'' Girardi said.

When he was asked to describe his reaction the first time he heard Tanaka had suffered a UCL tear, Girardi was quick to interject the word "slight,'' as if that would change the fact that the ligament is, indeed, torn. And of course, the only "slight'' injuries are those that happen to someone else. Only Tanaka really knows how slightly injured his elbow really is.

"I didn’t really ever feel we needed to give him an extra day or be cautious,'' Girardi said. "He never reported any trouble with his arm or feeling stiff after a start more than normal. So I felt that was all good stuff. Obviously there was concern, but there's a lot of guys that have slight [tears] and they pitch for a while. For whatever reason, some guys go right away and some guys pitch a long time with it. I'm sure there's a lot of pitchers that have it that we don't even know about. It's just really hard to predict.''

Tanaka, like Girardi, measured the success of his spring less by the numbers than by the fact that he came out of it healthy. "I think I'm a bit relieved,'' he said. "I felt that I was able to work on what I wanted to work on this spring. I feel pretty much ready to go for the season.”

A year ago at this time, everyone was sure Masahiro Tanaka would be a great pitcher.

Now, the same people are just relieved that he is still a pitcher.

And whether he is ready or not, it is just about time for his close-up.