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Spend Hal's Money: Brandon McCarthy

Brandon McCarthy was great as a Yankee. The rest of his career so far? Not as much. Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports

This New York Yankees offseason has no $189 million goal, nor does it appear a half-billion-dollar spending spree is in the offing, but owner Hal Steinbrenner and the team will likely make a few moves. As always, we like to be helpful here at ESPN New York, so once again we will aid the Yankees' decision-makers with a little game we like to call "Spend Hal's Money."

Brandon McCarthy

Brandon McCarthy

#38 SP
New York Yankees

2014 STATS

  • GM32
  • W10

  • L15

  • BB33

  • K175

  • ERA4.05

Today's candidate: Brandon McCarthy

Position: RHP

Age: 32 in July

Height: 6-7

Weight: 200

2014 numbers: $10.25 million salary, 10-15, 4.05 ERA, 200 IP, 1.28 WHIP

Pros: As a Yankee in 2014, McCarthy was excellent. In 14 starts, he finished 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA. He struck out 82 and walked 13. With Masahiro Tanaka out, he picked up the slack.

While his numbers in Arizona (3-10, 5.01 ERA in 18 starts) were poor enough that the Yankees only had to use Vidal Nuno to fetch him, he did finish the season with 200 innings for the first time in his career. When he came over from Arizona, the Yankees encouraged him to throw his cutter again and he was a changed man.

Though something of a journeyman, McCarthy has had other good seasons. Over two years with the A's (2011-2012), his ERA was 3.29. He really loved pitching in Oakland as his ERA was nearly a run and a half better there than on the road in 2011 and nearly a run better in 2012. So there is a small caveat to the numbers.

McCarthy is only 32 and is an intelligent type who seemed to transition easily to the Bronx.

Cons: In his career, McCarthy is 52-65 with a 4.09 ERA. Applying the Parcells Theorem to baseball, you are what your record says you are.

Now, as McCarthy -- who might be the biggest sabermetrics geek of any big leaguer -- would tell you, the win-loss record is not the most important stat for a pitcher. Innings pitched, though, is a pretty good one. McCarthy picked up 200 innings in 2014 and in 2011 he threw 170, but in his other seven seasons he has mostly hovered a little above or below 100 innings.

The Yankees' rotation will enter next season with questions surrounding Tanaka (elbow), CC Sabathia (knee), Ivan Nova (elbow) and Michael Pineda (who knows what), making it important that if they invest in a free-agent starter the return will feature a lot of innings. That is not a sure thing with McCarthy.

The cost of McCarthy could be pretty high. Phil Hughes seems like a pretty comparable guy. Hughes got a three-year, $24 million deal. I could see McCarthy receiving more than that -- maybe three and $30 million. When it is the Yankees, it is only money, but how much better do you think McCarthy will be over the next three years than, say, Shane Greene?

McCarthy has never been consistent for three seasons in his career. Only once -- with Oakland -- has he really had back-to-back good years.

As impressive as McCarthy was in 2014 with the Yankees, is that who he is or is that who he was for a few months?

The verdict: McCarthy seems like a popular choice to return among Yankees fans, but I would pass. If you could tell me you were going to buy the type of performance we saw his final months as a Yankee, I would be all in. But his history suggests otherwise.

Perhaps he is a bit better than the around-four ERA guy he has been for his career. In free agency, though, it is unwise to predict too much improvement over what a player has done in the past. That usually doesn't work.

For the type of dough McCarthy will likely receive, I think it would be better to go full bore after Jon Lester or Max Scherzer.

It is not my money so I would go for the top-shelf starters, at the risk of repeating the same mistakes with aging contracts. To me, that is a better option than hoping McCarthy's nearly three months of work means more than his eight-and-a-half years of past performance.