AP Photo/John Minchillo
There could still be better days ahead for David Wright.On Sunday, Buster Olney ranked the top 10 third basemen in baseball. Mets third baseman David Wright did not make the list.
It won’t be easy for Wright to get a spot either. Nine of the 10 third basemen on Buster’s list are younger than Wright (the exception being Adrian Beltre), and just about all of them are in the prime of their careers.
We wrote about the challenges Wright will face moving forward last month, making the comparison to Scott Rolen’s post-prime years.
It’s certainly not impossible for Wright to return to top-10 status. What would it take?
Health
First and foremost, the key for Wright will be good health. From 2005 to 2010, Wright averaged 156 games a year. From 2011 to 2014, he averaged 126.
Wright’s shoulder rehab sounds like it is going well. But it’s entirely possible that something else crops up.
An offensive boost
Amazingly, two of the projection systems that we like and trust have virtually identical numbers for Wright in 2015.
David Wright Season Averages
Past 4 Seasons
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS (used on ESPN.com) tag Wright for a .275/.346/.422 slashline, with 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 128 games.
Steamer, one of the projections systems on Fangraphs.com, pegs Wright for a .275/.347/.432 slashline, with 16 home runs and nine steals in 130 games.
Neither of these take into account the moving of the fences in right-center field to make Citi Field more hitter friendly.
If we tack three more doubles and two more home runs onto Wright’s Steamer projection (which doesn’t seem that unreasonable, given the ballpark’s change in dimensions), the batting average jumps to .285 and the slugging percentage rises to .461.
Only three players whose main position was third base hit that batting average/slugging percentage combo while playing at least 130 games in 2014 -- Anthony Rendon, Beltre and Josh Harrison. Each was in Buster’s top 10.
Good defense
One of the things that Wright has going for him heading into 2015 is his glove.
With the help of Tim Teufel, Wright has gotten back to being one of the game’s top defensive third basemen.
Most Defensive Runs Saved, 2014
His 34 Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons rank fifth at the position. Even in 2014, when Wright’s shoulder injury likely affected his offense, he ranked highly.
Wright doesn’t have the cannon arm of some at the position, but he still moves well laterally and covers a good amount of ground. How much ground he’ll have to cover next season, however, will depend on whom the Mets choose to play shortstop. A good shortstop would likely be beneficial to Wright’s overall defensive value.
Better baserunning
It will be tough for Wright to overcome the hurdles of age and aging hamstrings with regard to his baserunning.
He is going to have to be smart in a couple of respects. This may mean picking his spots better on his steal attempts. Wright needs to follow Daniel Murphy in that regard and avoid the eight steal/five caught stealing ratio he had in 2014.
At the plate, Wright's approach with men on base may change such that he avoids hitting into as many double plays as he did last season, when he had a career-high 22. Wright hit ground balls in 47 percent of his plate appearances in double-play situations.
His overall ground ball rate for the season was 41 percent (same as his ground ball rate in double-play situations from 2011 to 2013), which suggests either a run of bad luck or that Wright played into what pitchers were trying to do.
Winning ways
Both Steamer and ZiPS give Wright a WAR projection of 3.8 for 2015. That would represent a nice rebound for Wright, who was worth 1.9 WAR by Fangraphs’ measure and 2.8 per Baseball-Reference in 2014.
It puts him right on the cusp of the top 10. Steamer has him tied with Chase Headley for ninth (ZiPS hasn’t published its full projections yet).
That might get him back into the top 10, but there is one other thing that would help: for the Mets to get back to being a winning team.