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Duke is best bullpen fit for Mets

Zach Duke excelled at keeping the ball down in 2014.

The last few days, the focus has turned to how the Mets will fill the shortstop position for the 2015 season. But that's not the only need that the Mets currently have.

Zach Duke

Zach Duke

#59 SP
Milwaukee Brewers

2014 STATS

  • GM74
  • W5

  • L1

  • BB17

  • K74

  • ERA2.45

With Dana Eveland granted free agency, the Mets current pitching staff projects to have one lefty in the bullpen -- Josh Edgin. The internal options for the second are not strong. Minor leaguer Jack Leathersich is intriguing, but has major control issues (4.9 walks per 9) that need to be worked out.

Steven Matz would be an interesting option if the Mets wanted to put him into a role similar to that which the Royals used Brandon Finnegan in the playoffs, but we don't expect the team to go that route.

The Yankees just addressed their need in this area by swapping Francisco Cervelli for Pirates reliever Justin Wilson. The Mets could probably try to make a deal of a similar nature, but they can also do this without giving anyone up.

If the Mets wanted to pursue a free agent, the market has multiple options for them to consider. Red Sox reliever Andrew Miller is likely out of their price range, given that he's looking for a three- to four-year deal and may want to be a closer. Journeymen Joe Beimel and Joe Thatcher are among the other names that could draw their interest.

But from our viewpoint, the best choice for them would be to pursue Zach Duke.

The 31-year-old Duke excelled in relief for the Brewers last season, posting a 2.45 ERA, with 74 strikeouts and only 17 walks in 58 2/3 innings pitched over 74 appearances.

Duke had previously pitched for the Pirates, Diamondbacks, Nationals and Reds but had never been able to perform at a level anywhere close to that which he did as a rookie in 2005, when he had a 1.81 ERA in 14 starts, until last season.

Zach Duke- Last 4 Seasons

Duke changed things up prior to 2014 in two ways, dropping his arm slot to a siderarm delivery and increasing the use of his breaking pitches at the expense of his changeup (as this article thoroughly details).

That led to a sharp spike in his ground-ball rate and made him much tougher to hit home runs against. It also raised his strikeout rate to a level previously unseen in his career.

Duke handled both left and right-handed batters without issue with this new look. Lefties hit .198 against him. Righties hit .242. His opponents' slugging percentage was terrific- .302 against lefties, .298 against righties.

A look at the heat map atop this article shows where Duke most frequently threw pitches in 2014. He had the second-highest rate of pitches thrown in the lower-third of the strike zone or below among anyone who threw at least 50 innings (68 percent), trailing only submariner Brad Ziegler.

Steamer's projections for 2015 don't anticipate Duke replicating his 2014 success, but they don't project him to have a huge drop-off either. They put his ERA for 2015 at 3.10 and keep his strikeout-to-walk ratio at 3.5-to-1.

The other appeal for the Mets is that Duke shouldn't be that pricey. In his analysis of the top-50 free agents, former GM Jim Bowden pegs Duke as gettable for a two-year, $7 million deal. Duke doesn't figure to command the money or attention of someone like Boone Logan, who got overpaid by the Rockies last offseason, because he doesn't have Logan's track record.

So while you sit back and ponder the Mets options at shortstop, remember that there are other concerns for the Mets to address. The Mets have come out swinging this offseason in an attempt to show fans that they're serious about contending in 2015. Now could be the time for them to put up their dukes. Or in this case, put up for Duke.