Mark Simon, ESPN Staff 9y

Burning Questions: Outlook for d'Arnaud?

It was an interesting season for Mets catcher Travis d'Arnaud, one with plenty of good moments and bad moments both on offense and on defense, and one in which he dealt not just with a demotion, but with another injury, this one a bone spur in his elbow that required offseason surgery.

D’Arnaud is “still a work in progress” in the words of one major-league scout.

His offense

As the chart on the right shows, d’Arnaud was a completely different hitter after his return to the Mets from a couple weeks in Las Vegas.

Much was made of d’Arnaud’s ability to reach the outside pitch as the result of adjustments to his stance and his approach. But those adjustments also allowed him to drive pitches that were over the middle of the plate, without leading to any extra swings and misses.

Here's the numerical data to back that up:

d’Arnaud vs. middle-third/outer-third (or off outside corner) pitches

Pre-demotion: 70 outs, 7 hits, missed on 21 percent of swings

After recall: 112 outs, 50 hits, missed on 21 percent of swings

And here's a visual for those of you who would like to see it more clearly:

“If you look at the hitter who came back after the Vegas demotion, he was much more aggressive,” said a scout who saw d'Arnaud regularly this season. “He put himself in a much stronger hitting position. He eliminated his big leg kick, which improved his timing.”

His defense

Though Mets pitchers have said that they are very comfortable pitching to d’Arnaud, his defense has a ways to go.

He ranked a distant last among catchers with -15 Defensive Runs Saved.

• D’Arnaud had 51 wild pitch and passed ball misplays, second-most in the majors, behind only Wilin Rosario's 56. His ratio of blocked pitches in the dirt to wild pitches and passed balls was the worst among everyday catchers.

• He threw out only 9 of 67 basestealers (the last 10 attempts against him were successful). By comparison, Anthony Recker threw out 9 of 26.

• He made nine errors (eight throwing errors), tied for fourth-most in the majors.

• The staff ERA with d’Arnaud catching was 3.68. With Recker, it was 3.10.

D’Arnaud does rate well at one thing -- pitch framing on pitches both inside and outside the strike zone. Combined, he ranked 14th in the majors in terms of extra strikes gotten (based on an evaluation of Pitch F/X pitch locations).

“He can improve his pitch blocking,” the scout said. “He has a tendency to come up a little quick.”

There was an explanation for the throwing struggles ...

His health

D’Arnaud’s latest injury was a bone spur in his elbow, which would explain the poor throws to second base throughout much of the latter part of the season. The offseason surgery should alleviate the issue.

ESPN’s injury expert, Stephania Bell, offered this take:

“When spurs are removed, it usually expands the thrower’s range of motion and alleviates the the impingement [pinching] that was present but the thrower then has to adjust to that “new” range of motion which can take some time. After all, it takes a while for spurs to form and the thrower adapts gradually so while removing the restriction or the pain source can have immediate benefit, it still takes some time to adjust to this new, freer elbow.”

D’Arnaud has the entire winter to get used to his healthier elbow and has all of spring training to work out any kinks.

But add it to a list that includes injuries to his back, knee and foot and three concussions.

An alternative

The Mets could move d’Arnaud to another position (left field was floated as a possibility) and bring up first-round pick Kevin Plawecki, who flourished in both Double-A and Triple-A. Or they could make Plawecki d’Arnaud’s backup and then play both in interleague games (with d’Arnaud at DH) and against tough lefties (with d’Arnaud spelling either Lucas Duda at first base or Curtis Granderson in what we’re guessing will be left field).

For those intrigued by minor-league projections, here’s what Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projects for Plawecki next season: a .251/.311/.360 slashline with a home run every 56 at-bats and a double every 20 at-bats.

Among current catchers, he projects similar to John Jaso (who hit .264 with a .767 OPS for the Athletics last season) and Kurt Suzuki (who hit .288 with a .727 IOPS for the Twins).

d’Arnaud’s outlook

Another projection system, Steamer, really likes d’Arnaud next season. It forecasts both offensive and defensive improvements, and pegs him to hit .253 with 18 home runs, doubling his Fangraphs WAR from 1.6 to 3.2.

Our guess is the Mets will keep him behind the plate for now and roll the dice that his health holds up. The occasional moves to other positions could work with either Plawecki or Anthony Recker as the other catcher.

Patience is the key. The guy the Mets saw in July and August was the guy they were expecting when they got him in trade.

“That position is very challenging in term of learning pitching staff, getting big league hitters out, and being a big league hitter," said the scout. "There’s a lot going on. He heading in right direction.

“It’s like putting your food in the microwave and complaining why it takes 60 seconds to heat up,” the scout said. “If you saw Yadier Molina his first three seasons, no one would have predicted he’d become the catcher he’s become. You’ve gotta be patient. They don’t get better on our schedule, they get better on theirs.”

What would you do with Travis d'Arnaud? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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