Ian Begley, ESPN Staff Writer 9y

What the numbers say about Jerian Grant

No matter how Derek Fisher divides minutes among his guards in 2015-16, Jerian Grant figures to play a big role in the Knicks' backcourt.

Here’s a look at how Grant can fit into the Knicks’ offense, by the numbers:

PICK-AND-ROLL: Grant showed at Notre Dame that he can create scoring opportunities in the pick-and-roll. He ranked in the 72nd percentile nationally in points per play as the pick-and-roll ball handler last year, per Synergy Sports. When the defense committed to Grant on the pick-and-roll, he was even more effective. The Fighting Irish scored an average of 1.1 points per play in those situations, which ranked in the 90th percentile in Division I.

This is good news for the Knicks, who struggled in the pick-and-roll for much of the season last year. Their ball handlers in the pick-and-roll ranked second-to-last in points per play. Grant should be able to help improve that ranking.

It should be noted here that New York didn’t run much pick-and-roll early in the season. They ran the second-fewest pick-and-roll plays per game through late March. But Fisher’s Knicks increased their pick-and-roll rate late in the season and used it with greater frequency in the Las Vegas Summer League.

With Grant and fellow rookie Kristaps Porzingis on the roster, it would make sense for the Knicks to continue this trend in 2015-16.

TRANSITION: Grant showed an ability to create scoring opportunities in transition at Notre Dame. He averaged 1.214 points per play in transition last season, which ranked in the top 20 percent nationally among Division I players, per Synergy.

Notre Dame scored points on an impressive 60 percent of Grant's transition plays last year. (Plays are defined as a sequence that ended in a turnover, foul or made basket).

Here, once again, Grant can give the Knicks a scoring dimension that they lacked last season. New York ranked second-to-last in the NBA in converting in transition opportunities in 2014-15, per Synergy.

SHOOTING: Grant had success as a spot-up shooter in South Bend. According to Synergy, he averaged 1.188 points per play on spot up shots as a senior (85 plays). That rate ranked him in the 91st percentile among Division I players.

Grant should have plenty of opportunities to shoot spot-up jumpers this season in New York.

Out of all of the ways to score that are tracked in the NBA, the Knicks used the spot-up jump shot most often (19 percent) last year, per Synergy.

It’s also worth noting here that Grant had success in isolation in his senior season at Notre Dame. His points per play in such situations (1.011) ranked in the 89th percentile in the country. This could be useful late in the shot clock if nothing materializes and Grant is asked to create his own shot.

WHAT ABOUT THE NBA? The great unknown for the Knicks is how Grant's offensive strengths will translate to the NBA. That's impossible to predict at this point, of course.

But it's worth noting that ESPN NBA Insider Kevin Pelton's statistical method predicts that Grant will shoot 44 percent on 2-point field goals and 32.5 percent on 3-point field goals as a rookie. That's not great.

Also, ESPN’s Ben Alamar, Zach Bradshaw and the analytics group have developed an interesting model to project the NBA success of draft-eligible college prospects early in their careers. And what the model has to say about Grant isn't very encouraging.

The model projects the draftees' statistical plus/minus in years 2 through 5 of their careers. (Data from the 2001-2010 drafts were used to predict the statistical plus/minus).

Using the projected statistical plus/minus, the model predicts the likelihood of the player becoming a superstar, starter, role player or “bust.”

Grant’s projected statistical plus/minus is -0.87. (Statistical plus/minus is an estimate of a player’s contribution to his team’s point differential per 100 possessions). Based on this number, the model says Grant has a 0.1 percent chance of being a superstar, a 13 percent chance of being a starter, a 34.6 percent chance of being a role player and a 52.2 percent chance of being a “bust.”

Clearly, the Knicks hope that their rookie can beat the projected odds.

The guess here is that Grant's pick-and-roll prowess and aggressive nature in transition will translate well in the NBA. We'd bet that, over the course of his career, Grant ends up as a starter or strong role player instead of a bust.

Knicks sign Porzingis, Grant, Amundson: The Knicks announced that they have signed rookies Kristaps Porzingis and Jerian Grant to their rookie deals. The team also announced that Lou Amundson signed his contract, a deal that was agreed upon earlier this month. Porzingis' deal -- a standard rookie contract -- starts at approximately $3.4 million and is for a total of $15.5 million over four seasons. Grant's deal is also a standard rookie contract -- a four-year, $6.3 million contract worth approximately $1.3 million in the first season.

The numbers are based on the rookie scale, which can -- and often does -- increase by as much as 20 percent. So it is likely that the values for Porzingis and Grant's deals are significantly higher, assuming they signed for the standard 20 percent increase.

Amundson's contract is a one-year, $1.65 million deal, per a league source.

The Knicks now have 12 players under guaranteed contracts (including Langston Galloway, whose deal is partially guaranteed but who is expected on the regular season roster). So they have three more roster spots to fill prior to the regular season. They have agreed to a training camp deal with Harvard's Wesley Saunders. Ricky Ledo, Travis Wear and Thanasis Antetokounmpo are also potential training camp invitees. The Knicks aren't done on the free-agent market either. They are looking for a backup big man and have the $2.8 million room exception to offer free agents. They can also offer veteran's minimum contracts.

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