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Playoff picture: Week 8

It’s time to assess the damage.

Every week, upset darts continue to fly, popping playoff hopes left and right -- or at least leaving them with a slow leak. Any team that doesn’t limp across the finish line (most likely Florida State) will be the anomaly this season. There are 18 one-loss teams remaining -- quite a fine mess for the College Football Playoff’s selection committee to sort out by the time its initial rankings are released Oct. 28.

With Week 8 losses by Notre Dame and Baylor, there are only four unbeaten teams remaining: Mississippi State, Florida State, Ole Miss and Marshall. Somebody from the state of Mississippi is going down in what should be an epic Egg Bowl on Nov. 29 in Oxford -- that is, if they both can stay unscathed until then -- leaving a maximum of two undefeated teams from the Power 5 conferences.

That’s an optimistic view, considering the November lineups and how many teams are picking up the pieces after Week 8. Here’s a look at which losses caused the most damage Saturday, ranked from the least to the most damaging:

Florida State 31, Notre Dame 27: The Irish redefined “good loss” in Tallahassee. They were on the road, against the defending national champs, and they put on a terrific show in what was arguably the best game of the weekend. Here’s the problem: Stanford also lost Saturday, and so far, Notre Dame’s win over the three-loss Cardinal is the highlight of its playoff résumé. The good news for Notre Dame is that it still has road trips to Arizona State and USC on the schedule, so if the Irish win out -- and look as good as they did Saturday in the process -- they should still be considered for the playoff. The margin for error, though, is gone.

West Virginia 41, Baylor 27: The Bears were an unconvincing playoff contender to begin with because of their weak nonconference schedule and friendly defense. While no one-loss team should be written off just yet, Baylor’s mistakes and sloppy, undisciplined performance are going to be difficult to overcome. The Bears racked up an absurd 18 penalties for a school-record 215 yards -- just 8 yards fewer than Bryce Petty threw for. The offensive line allowed 10 tackles in the backfield, and the offense was stagnant against a defense that was missing its starting cornerbacks. Baylor still has to play Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but with both of those teams losing Saturday, it won’t do much to boost the Bears’ strength of schedule.

Kansas State 31, Oklahoma 30: The Sooners’ stock had been dropping in recent weeks, and this was the final dagger. OU couldn’t convert when it had to in the fourth quarter, couldn’t overcome its two turnovers and lost the special teams battle. With Baylor and Oklahoma State both losing, there aren’t any chances left on the schedule to impress the selection committee with a statement win and get back into the conversation. Oklahoma has now lost two of its past three games, and its best win was at West Virginia. That’s not going to be enough to get back into the top four.

Arizona State 26, Stanford 10: A three-loss team is not going to be in the inaugural College Football Playoff -- even if it wins the Pac-12 title. Just a hunch. Forget top four, Stanford doesn’t even look Top 25. With only two league losses, Stanford could run the table and play in the conference title game, but that’s now the ceiling, and odds are it won’t reach it if it continues to struggle offensively like it did Saturday. The Cardinal ran for just 76 yards and lost the turnover battle 2-0. Three of Stanford’s final four games of the regular season are on the road, including at Oregon. Stanford has lost the most meaningful games it has played, and in turn lost its shot at the playoff.