JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Jacksonville Jaguars general manager David Caldwell was pretty firm in his negotiations with free-agent running back DeMarco Murray last month. Caldwell had a limit that he didn’t want to exceed and when the Philadelphia Eagles offered Murray $8 million annually, Caldwell dropped out of the bidding.
At the NFL owners meetings, Caldwell said the Eagles' offer was more than $2 million more than his, which means the Jaguars were somewhere in the $5-$6 million range.
That’s why it's hard to believe the Jaguars would be a potential trade partner with the Minnesota Vikings should they want to move running back Adrian Peterson.
If Caldwell wasn’t willing to pay $8 million a year to a 27-year-old running back with 934 carries who has played a full season just once in his four-year career, why would he pay more than $14 million annually to a 30-year-old running back with 2,054 carries who has played a full season just once in his eight-year career?
Granted, Peterson is one of the best backs in NFL history and is one of only 29 players to rush for more than 10,000 yards. However, he’s already had one severe knee injury and the drop-off in production from running backs once they turn 30 is significant. Since 1990, only 19 players age 30 or older have rushed for more than 1,000 yards in a single season. Six, including former Jaguar Fred Taylor, did it twice. Only one (Emmitt Smith) did it three times.
Frank Gore (1,106 yards) was the only player to do it last season. Some of the players who never rushed for 1,000 yards after age 30: Jerome Bettis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marcus Allen and Marshall Faulk.
The Jaguars wouldn’t trade for Peterson for him to rush for 800 yards. They would want to make him the focal point of the offense and to run for 1,200-1,500 yards, which would be a huge help to second-year quarterback Blake Bortles. The offense wouldn’t have to rely on a young quarterback still trying to fix flaws in his footwork while he’s learning his second offense in as many seasons.
The Jaguars can get 800 yards rushing out of a healthy Denard Robinson. He was on pace for 716 yards in 2014 despite running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL before he missed the final three games with a foot injury. The offensive line should be better in 2015 with Luke Bowanko and Brandon Linder in their second seasons and the addition of right tackle Jermey Parnell.
Would it be sound financially to pay Robinson $12.75 million? Stupid question, but that’s what Peterson’s base salary is in 2015 with a cap number of $15.4 million. His base salaries in 2016 and 2017 are $14.75 million and $15.75 million, respectively. That’s what the Jaguars would be responsible for if they traded for Peterson.
There’s no way to know for sure if Peterson will hit the wall at 30. He’s fresher than most 30-year-old backs because he essentially had the entire 2014 season off, which saved enormous wear and tear on his body. He could be a 1,200-yard rusher in each of the next three seasons. History isn’t on his side, though, and it would be a huge gamble for the Jaguars.
It also would come at a huge price. The Vikings aren’t going to give up Peterson for the Jaguars’ first-round pick this season (No. 3 overall). It might take multiple first-round picks, possibly even a couple of second- or third-round picks in future years, as well.
Those draft picks are too valuable for a franchise that still has one of the worst rosters in the league.
Peterson is a great player and might have several good years remaining, but the cost and risk are so high that it makes it hard to see the Jaguars willing to trade.