<
>

Revisiting true shooting percentage

Wesley Matthews' true shooting percentage is relatively low for such a 3-point specialist. Craig Mitchelldyer/USA TODAY Sports

The midway point in the fantasy season is a good time to check in on my favorite fantasy stat: true shooting percentage. It is my favorite tool in the never-ending hunt for hidden fantasy value.

True shooting percentage employs a simple formula to fold 3-point production and free throw production into an NBA player's field goal percentage. Laid out, it looks like this:

Points Scored / 2 x (Field Goal Attempts + .44 x Free Throw Attempts)

It's an elegant concept. It's portable. It migrates easily from daily leagues to head-to-head to rotisserie formats without losing any of its numerical gravitas.

Chauncey Billups was the most underrated fantasy point guard of the mid-aughts because his true value was concealed within the auspices of his true shooting percentage. According to Basketball-Reference.com, he's 51st all time (NBA and ABA) in true shooting percentage. (It's a big reason why he's still known as Mr. Big Shot.)

I love true shooting percentage because it's the best representation of the ongoing push and pull between field goal percentage, 3-point production and free throw production. Too often, we put too much weight on one or two of these areas at the expense of the others.

Wesley Matthews is making a contract-year push in the place that matters the most for a wing: from behind the arc. He's hitting 39 percent from deep to the tune of 3.1 3-pointers a night. He's hitting a career 54.9 percent of his 2-point attempts. He's chipping in 16.5 points and 1.1 steals on top of that.

Those numbers will make Matthews' accountant a busy man this summer. Those numbers would normally cement someone in the overall fantasy top 20. Yet Matthews barely cracks the top 40 because he's a mediocre 73.4 percent from the line, almost 10 percentage points lower than his career average of 82.7.

Due to the divot at the charity stripe, Matthews is losing over a full Player Rater point in value, which is about 15 places overall. He should at least be hanging around 25 overall with Danny Green.

Matthews' TS% is a better-than-pretty-good 59.5. He's tied for 32nd overall. But a 59.5 TS% is downright disappointing for a player hitting 3.1 3s a game.

Compare that with the player leading the league in TS%. He's the face of the darlings of the entire league, your Atlanta Hawks. Right now, you're hearing a lot about Korver and the Hawks "playing basketball the way it was meant to be played." Phrases like that are steeped in true shooting percentage.

Korver was fourth last season with a TS% of 64.8. He's currently No. 1 with a bullet at 73.8, especially impressive for a wing. Low MPG big men who hit for a high field goal percentage get an unfair advantage with TS%, especially big men who don't attempt a ton of free throws. Big men are typically mediocre at best from the line. So you'll get some players such as Chris Andersen and Brandan Wright up in the top 10.

But even with Andersen, a high TS% can portend bigger things for a low-MPG pivot player. Sometimes it's just a matter of adding minutes (volume) to a high TS%.

Look at Hassan Whiteside. His 12-block night notwithstanding, one of the big reasons I started pushing him weeks ago was his high TS% (he's seventh in the NBA at 65.7). Along with a high PER, his efficiency metrics all indicated he could flourish in an expanded role.

Let’s take a look some players whose true shooting percentages are indicating potential shifts in fantasy value.

Kevin Martin, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves (65.2 TS%): Martin was headed for a top-30 fantasy season on a low-expectation team in dire need of some veteran scoring punch. Then a wrist injury derailed Martin’s nice little fantasy success story. Still, there’s a half a season to played. Minnesota is in all kinds of hurt at the two. Expectations remain sub-Philadelphian. There’s plenty of time for Martin to recoup value.

James Johnson, SF/PF, Toronto Raptors (62.5 TS%): For his career, Johnson is an abysmal (.258) 3-point shooter. This season, he’s sunk from abysmal to downright putrid (.194). But he’s hitting a career-high 66 percent of his 2-point attempts. He’s also the kind of guy who can average a block and a steal per night given at least 25 MPG. Someone to keep an eye on if additional injuries hit the Raptors.

Jared Dudley, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks (59.7 TS%): Over the past couple of campaigns, Dudley went from underrated to highly anticipated to downright deflating. Maybe it was injuries, or a lack of fit, or subprime coaching. Whatever the reason, Dudley is having a nice little bounce-back season under Jason Kidd. The problem with that last sentence is that it comes with the attendant fluctuations in Kidd’s rotations. Dudley is streaky, and someone to watch in daily and deep leagues.

Paul Pierce, SF/PF, Washington Wizards (59.0 TS%): Pierce is subtly building value as the season progresses. His PR15 on the Player Rater is at 6.40 points. As the Wizards’ rotation has shifted, so has Pierce’s role. That shift has included a recent rise in free throw production. Pierce went 10-for-14 from the line Sunday night in Denver. It’s a trend that bears watching; I think Pierce’s role expands as we get closer to the playoffs.

LeBron James, SF/PF, Cleveland Cavaliers (58.7 TS%): James’ drop in overall fantasy value is reflected in his plummet down the TS% charts. He was fifth overall in 2013-14; this season to date, he’s 42nd. Blatt or no Blatt, a correction is in order, especially in 2-point production. LeBron’s gone from hitting .622 of his 2-pointers to just .538.