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Eric Karabell, ESPN Senior Writer 9y

Speedy Hamilton could provide top value

The average major league team hit 140 home runs and stole 92 bases last season. In most of the mock drafts and real ones I participated in through March, it was pretty clear that power, while vital to every fantasy team, is a lot more available than speed, perhaps not at the very high end, but everywhere else. While a home run technically does more to aid a fantasy team because it’s a hit, a run and a run batted in as well, providing relevance in four of the five offensive categories, there’s still nothing like owning the fastest guy in the game when he’s running wild and dominating that other statistic.

Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is making headlines as he became the first player in history to hit five home runs in the first three games of a season. You know what? Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton has six stolen bases after three games. It’s not more valuable in the big fantasy picture, per se, because Gonzalez is first on the Player Rater entering Friday and Hamilton is second, but Hamilton is a lot more likely to keep up some semblance of this pace, and because steals are far more rare than home runs, the inherent value they provide also can be debated. For now though, Hamilton is, for fantasy purposes, nearly impossible to trade.

Hamilton is off to a great start and you can say it’s only a few games and his second half last year was miserable (it was really only September that hurt his numbers), but I’m seeing a difference in approach, and for him, that is vital. The speed is never in doubt. He’s embarrassing good catchers on pitchouts. On Thursday, Hamilton walked and stole second base in the third inning. In the sixth, he reached on a fielder’s choice and stole another base. A day prior he rapped three singles and stole three bases. On Monday, he hung in there against tough lefties Francisco Liriano and Tony Watson and scored two runs. Gonzalez isn’t going to hit 40 home runs. It’s a great start for him too, and against his former team in the San Diego Padres, but he’s averaged 22 homers the past three seasons. Hamilton has one year and 56 steals, but the potential is there for him to … double it?

OK, so that’s a bit optimistic, but consider a few factors. Hamilton clearly wore down last season physically, which is why he worked on improving his strength and conditioning this winter with coaches such as Delino DeShields, another smaller fellow who once stole many bases. Hamilton was caught stealing far too often as a rookie, and nearly a third of those 23 times came on pickoffs. Finally, Hamilton wasn’t on base enough, as he didn’t take enough pitches. He knows all this.

This year he shouldn’t be as fatigued by August. He knows the pitchers and their moves better. And so far, at least, he’s more patient at the plate. Hamilton is going to really pile on the stolen bases; the ESPN Fantasy projection of 62 is cautious. I want 100. I think we’ll get 80. And by the way, if Hamilton hits say .275, scores 85 runs and steals 80 bases, he’ll be top-10 on the final Player Rater for sure, perhaps in the running for No. 1. This isn't like Vince Coleman in the 1980s because there were many more stolen bases then. Now that doesn’t mean Hamilton is more valuable than Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw or Gonzalez, it’s just a rating system and it cannot take into account your team needs. Winning stolen bases by 30 does you no good. As it was last year, Hamilton finished 35th overall on the Rater and trust me, it’s nearly impossible to get a Hamilton owner to deal him today. They’re scared they won’t have enough steals. Gonzalez is being dealt all over the place.

NL report: New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey sure looked awesome in shutting down a depleted Washington Nationals offense over six shutout innings Thursday, and I don’t mean to imply anything by using the word “depleted.” It’s a fact. Clint Robinson hit fifth for the Nats. Google him. The point is Harvey threw nearly as hard as he once did in 2013, before the Tommy John surgery, had good command and struck out nine. So why haven’t I pronounced him a top-10 starting pitcher again? It’s still only one game and doesn’t change any original concerns about April pitch counts or an eventual innings limit. That said, this was impressive. … Stephen Strasburg was the victim of bad luck, as the Mets realized early in the series that hitting the ball to shortstop Ian Desmond would help add baserunners, but still, nine hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings isn’t clean. I’d still rather own Strasburg, for this season, than Harvey, though we’re always re-evaluating. … I began to wonder as Desmond committed his third error in as many games if playing time could be in jeopardy, but the Nationals already are short-handed and Desmond is productive at the plate. … San Diego Padres right-hander Ian Kennedy left early with a hamstring strain, and one would think he’s likely to miss several starts. Odrisamer Despaigne replaced Kennedy and figures to handle the rotation spot.

AL report: While Harvey and Seattle Mariners right-hander Taijuan Walker produced such gaudy stats in spring training that it buoyed their draft status, the fact is Oakland Athletics right-hander Kendall Graveman led all hurlers with a 0.36 ERA, and it made him a popular deep league sleeper. He permitted one run in 25 1/3 innings. He's a natural ground-baller, and I admit I bought in. On Thursday Graveman allowed two runs before getting an out. He’d get only 10 outs overall, but permit eight runs (seven earned). I own him in a deep league and I’m not cutting him yet. There’s something here too, but in a Tim Hudson-type of way, sans strikeout potential. … We keep recommending to fantasy owners they show some patience, that two games is not enough. Rangers outfielder Ryan Rua had three hits Thursday. I think he’ll keep hitting. Mitch Moreland homered. There could be 20 more. Wait a few weeks for players to hit. … I can’t say I’m an Edinson Volquez fan, but the Kansas City Royals right-hander mowed down the White Sox over eight innings, giving up one run and fanning five. Perhaps I need to be more open-minded. … Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer stole a base. The day before he homered. Don’t tease us, Eric. Please. Just have that monster season. … The Minnesota Twins finally scored, but I don’t see people talking about Detroit’s pitching. It’s good. Right-hander Shane Greene pounded the strike zone, with 65 of 85 pitches for strikes. It’s not simply because it was against the Twins. … Combo meal (a home run and a stolen base) for Cleveland Indians shortstop Jose Ramirez! Don’t expect much power, but 25 steals are possible.

Closer report: Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons showed the minimal patience of the average fantasy leaguer by pulling closer Brett Cecil from the role after one outing. Cecil wasn’t very good Wednesday but still, it seems early. On Thursday, right-hander Miguel Castro, 20 years old and with no minor league experience above A-ball, mowed down the New York Yankees on 15 pitches, 11 of them strikes, for the save. Cecil threw an effective eighth inning. Could Castro keep the job? Of course he can. Could Cecil still get some saves? Yep! Whom would I rather own in a standard league? It’s early, but I’ll say Castro. I still think the Blue Jays eventually sign free agent Rafael Soriano. … Don’t forget the Boston Red Sox should get Koji Uehara back after the weekend, and he’ll go right back to closing. … Relievers to watch this weekend: Dellin Betances and LaTroy Hawkins. They need to pitch well or neither will be earning saves.

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