BALTIMORE -- The quick, reflex answer would be no. He can't do it.
Why should American Pharoah complete a Triple Crown sweep when so many other superb horses have mirrored his accomplishments in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and then wilted when the pressure reached its zenith in the Belmont Stakes?
Why indeed?
After all of the teases racing has served up since 1978 -- 13 of them, to be exact -- logic actually dictates a cynical stance. But not this time.
Some 37 years later, Affirmed is about to get company.
Really.
Admittedly, it's much easier to build a case against American Pharoah than it is to support him.
After all:
1. Triple Crown candidates who wound up in the Hall of Fame were tripped up by the Belmont.
2. The grind of three classic races in five weeks is too difficult for modern-day horses, and gives a huge advantage to horses that sit out one or both of the first two races in the series.
3. Minor problems are magnified when they happen to animals as fragile as race horses.
4. Some who seemed invincible after the Preakness found the mile-and-a-half, "Test of the Champion" distance to be their kryptonite.
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Gary West writes that "The hard part's next. American Pharoah's victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness will tincture with expectation everything he does and every move he makes over the next three weeks, because if he can succeed at Belmont Park on June 6, he'll become the sport's 12th Triple Crown winner."
MoreIn 2004, Derby winner Smarty Jones demolished nine rivals by 11.5 lengths in the Preakness. He brought an undefeated record into the Belmont and was sent off as an odds-on $0.35-to-1 choice. In layman's terms, he would have paid a minuscule $2.70 for a $2 bet. He led with a furlong left, but inexplicably settled for second behind 36-1 long shot Birdstone.
In 2008, Big Brown followed up his Derby win with a 5¼-length romp in the Preakness. He, too, was sent off the heavy favorite at 3-10 odds in the Belmont against a seemingly overmatched field, but he fell victim to a hoof injury and didn't even finish the race.
So why should American Pharoah, after his seven-length wipeout in the Preakness, fare any better than Smarty Jones or Big Brown?
There are several reasons, foremost of which involves the foundation his success has been built upon.
He has the perfect trainer in Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who will be taking aim at a Triple Crown for a fourth time, extending his own industry record in that regard.
He also has been nothing shy of outstanding since his early days at the farm when he was a highly precocious yearling.
"From day one," Baffert said after the Preakness, "people were expecting this."
Some horses turn the corner and blossom at 3 years old, and that lack of seasoning explains why registering three straight classic wins is such a herculean task.
American Pharoah has been brilliant 24/7, with the lone exception coming on the afternoon of Aug. 9, 2014, at Del Mar. In his career debut, American Pharoah acted up in the paddock and never focused on the job at hand, finishing fifth in a maiden race.
Baffert put cotton in his colt's ears to help him deal with the clamor around him, and the problem was solved. Baffert was so sure that ear plugs would bring out the very best in American Pharoah that instead of trying another maiden race, he elevated the challenge for the homebred son of Pioneerof the Nile and entered him in the $300,000 Del Mar Futurity.
American Pharoah backed up Baffert's faith by posting a convincing 4¾-length victory, becoming just the third maiden in 67 years to win the Grade 1 stakes.
Since then, owner Ahmed Zayat's colt has been nothing short of exceptional in every race, so why should that roll stop now?
He's anything but a horse who has thrived at a highly opportune time and might be approaching the end of a form cycle. He's that rare breed of horse who has been able to be a champion at two and maintain his dominance at three.
Affirmed had that quality; so did Seattle Slew, Secretariat and Citation. They were the last four Triple Crown champions, and all of them were 2-year-old champions. Other than American Pharoah, since 1978, the only other horse to be an Eclipse Award winner as a juvenile and win the Derby and Preakness was Spectacular Bid in 1979.
If the legend is true, it took a stray safety pin to derail Spectacular Bid's Triple Crown run. So as long as the grounds around him are well-manicured, and the New York Racing Association does not bar earplugs, it's sensible to believe that on June 6, American Pharoah will prove he is cut from the mold of Affirmed and Co. as opposed to the 13 near-misses since 1978. The sting from so many days and years of having to hum Meat Loaf's "Two Out of Three Ain't Bad" after the Belmont surely makes it seem inevitable that something will go amiss this year as well.
Yet American Pharoah has already faced more than his fair share of obstacles on the Triple Crown path and could not be kept out of the winner's circle at Churchill Downs or Pimlico.
In the Derby, he faced the best field in decades and had been able to squeeze in just two yawners as his lone races since Sept. 27, 2014. He was hardly battle-tested.
His owner said he did not handle the racing surface at Churchill Downs. He raced wide after drawing Post 15.
All of them were a legitimate excuse for a defeat, and still he won by a length.
In the Preakness, he drew the rail and it was quickly noted that no one had won the Preakness from that post position since 1994. As a result, he would be inside of Firing Line and Dortmund, who were second and third, respectively, in the Derby, instead of outside them as he was in the Run for the Roses. That gave a tactical edge to those two since jockey Victor Espinoza was likely to put the Derby winner on the lead from the rail.
Beyond that, a monsoon shortly before the Preakness turned the track into a sea of slop. Back in 1972, a wet track led to Riva Ridge's defeat which prevented the Meadow Stable colt from becoming a Triple Crown winner a year before his legendary stablemate.
None of that stopped American Pharoah, who not only won, but won decisively with mild urging.
His final times in the Derby and Preakness might not have been jaw-dropping, but he will not be running against Secretariat or anyone from the past on June 6. No one in his crop has been faster than him this year, and that's what matters most.
So once again, for the 14th time since 1978, it's time to believe again, and perhaps this time hope has finally found the perfect candidate. Maybe, too, the Preakness, in an odd way, has provided us with an omen of what's to come at Belmont Park in three weeks.
The lack of a Triple Crown winner for 37 years is often referred to as a drought, and there's no better way to end a drought than with the kind of storm that hit Pimlico on Saturday afternoon -- and the horse who so impressively handled those conditions.
Now, on June 6, it will be American Pharoah's chance to give his sport what it has thirsted for since 1978, and there's every reason to believe he'll do it.
It's finally time for racing to remember what it's like to have a Triple Crown champion to embrace.
A Pharoah is about to join racing's royalty.