How to judge whether a recruiting pledge will stick

LOS ANGELES -- Earlier this week, the long recruiting arm of Steve Sarkisian and the USC Trojans coaching staff reached into the Deep South and came away with a prized verbal from Josh Imatorbhebhe, a talented wide receiver from North Gwinnett High in Suwanee, Georgia.

Imatorbhebhe’s impressive video announcement comes on the heels of another recent announcement, a declaration to the Trojans by Alabama wide receiver Velus Jones from Saraland High.

The euphoria of the Imatorbhebhe and Jones verbals have somewhat helped soothe the decommitment of defensive end Isaac Garcia (Bellevue, Wash.) who decided to reopen his recruiting after making a pledge to the Trojans in September.

Despite the apparent loss of Garcia, the two new verbal additions to the Trojans' Class of 2016 have been good enough for the Cardinal and Gold to ascend up two spots to No. 7 in ESPN's latest recruiting class rankings.

So what should a Trojans recruiting fan believe when it comes to these early declarations?

Is there some guideline that can be used to consider or judge how strong an early commitment is and will it stick through February’s national signing day?

Here are 10 factors which may help one determine if an oral pledge will honor his verbal.

1. Legacy: In most cases, the son of a former Trojans football player or athlete is a good bet to stick to his USC commitment. The worse-case scenario is a legacy’s son not being recruited by the Trojans and then coming back to bite them in another uniform.

2. Hometown: Some geographic regions are considered USC bastions, like Orange County and the Long Beach area. It’s always good to know what area a recruit calls home. If a recruit calls Columbus, Ohio, home, don’t count on the verbal sticking.

3. Hometown connections: Let's use the recent verbal to Troy by Imatorbhebhe as an example; he has Southern California roots having grown up in Orange County. Never doubt the power and allure of former Southern Californians returning.

4. The high school pipeline: Look closely at where a blue chipper plays. If the athlete is from a local high school like Long Beach Poly, Santa Ana Mater Dei, or Gardena Serra, the commit is likely to stick.

5. The high school coaching staff: Be familiar with a recruit’s high school coaching staff. For example, Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei’s head coach, Bruce Rollinson, is a former Mater Dei and USC player, but he has never been known to sway a player to Troy, although his players know his cardinal and gold past. Conversely, Gardena Serra head coach Scott Altenberg, brother of late former UCLA receiving great Kurt Altenberg, has had many of his stars head not to UCLA but to USC.

6. The transplant tree: For out-of-state players, look at whether they have relatives living in the Southern California area. “Cutting the family ties” is much less intense if grandma, uncle or auntie lives in SoCal. This has been the key for many recent out-of-state Trojans stars like former All-America defensive tackle Leonard “Big Cat” Williams.

7. Summer camp connections: Following in the footsteps of summer basketball camps and traveling team competition, this fairly new football recruiting phenomenon has taken a life form all its own. If you have access to information, watch which recruits seem to bond with certain recruits on the summer camp circuit. There is a lot of “underground” recruiting going on.

8. Traveling team coaches: Many of the top 7-on-7 passing league all-star teams are coached by former college football players. A number of former Trojans players are coaching many of the top recruits in the area. Even if the head traveling team coach doesn’t promote his alma mater and stays “neutral,” don’t think for a minute the kids on his team don’t know where his heart lies.

9. Twitter account: It’s a good bet that the best information for the general public is coming from a recruit’s Twitter account. How reliable is it? Well, it depends on the athlete. Some are serious about giving accurate information to avoid the constant phone and text messages from the recruiting industry while others seem to like to see the general public drool with every titillating tweet.

10. Family and friends: The ultimate challenge is to find out the inner workings of a recruit’s family, and it helps to know where mama wants her baby to go. Certainly dad can be heavy in the mix, but mama is to be reckoned with on the recruiting trail. If she is part of an unofficial visit like a Junior Day or on the official recruiting visit, you know there is serious consideration being given to that particular university.