Eamonn Brennan, ESPN Staff Writer 8y

Looking ahead: Under Andy Kennedy, don't bet on Ole Miss underachieving

It's never too early to look at what's to come. During the next few weeks, we will give you a peek of what's ahead for teams in the Power 5 conferences and some other teams expected to be players on the national scene. Next up: Ole Miss.

Fun fact: Andy Kennedy is the winningest coach in Ole Miss basketball history. Fun fact: Kennedy was hired in 2006.

There are easy stats and hard stats. There are things every college basketball fan absorbs through repetition, and there are things that you wouldn't know unless you either did the research or occasionally reminded yourself, or both. Kennedy's success at Ole Miss is definitively of the latter category, and appreciating that success -- even in the age of Google -- requires (slightly) more effort.

That's because, beyond Kennedy's status in Ole Miss hoops history, the nature of his work isn't easily distilled into consumption-friendly nuggets. "Bo Ryan never missed an NCAA tournament at Wisconsin" is easy to recite and easier to understand. "The Rebels have gone to two NCAA tournament appearances in Kennedy's 10 seasons" requires further explanation.

Oxford, Mississippi, is utterly football-obsessed. The program had six NCAA tournament appearances before Kennedy's arrival. It moved out of its decaying former gym in January 2016. From the first time a basketball team representing the University of Mississippi took the floor -- 1909's no-doubt thrilling 12-11 loss to the Memphis Physicians -- until 2006-07, the Rebels had managed to play in just six NITs. Kennedy has taken them to five. None of his teams have never finished outside the adjusted efficiency top 100; on average, they've been 66th.

It's a mouthful, but context matters. And the context of Kennedy's tenure is this: He has turned a historical afterthought into an outfit that is never truly bad.

That ability -- to draw out decent seasons from rosters that should dictate otherwise -- is the main cause for Rebels-related optimism in 2016-17.

Because, yes, this roster should dictate otherwise. Last season's 20-12 record, 10-8 in the SEC, was in large part the product of guard Stefan Moody's tireless scoring. As a junior, Moody cohabitated the backcourt with guard Jarvis Summers and had experienced help (LaDarius White, M.J. Rhett) in supporting roles. As a senior on a less-talented team, Moody had the ultimate green light. He averaged 23.6 points and 4.3 assists per game while also chipping in rebounds and steals. He took 32 percent of his team's shots, made 38 percent of his 3s, shot 83 percent from the foul line and got to the line 7.3 times per 40 minutes. He accounted for more of his team's possessions while he was on the floor (33.2 percent) than any other high-major player in the country. And he was on the floor a lot.

Moody's efficient, relentless production is gone, and there is no obvious path to replacing it. This is usually the part where we say something about replacing by committee, but even that vague concept looks comically far-fetched.

That said, Kennedy will not be entirely without backcourt talent. The biggest news of the offseason came in mid-April, when former New Mexico guard Cullen Neal chose Oxford as his transfer destination. He's eligible immediately. The son of New Mexico coach Craig Neal left the school after a disappointing junior season in which he received online death threats. (Because college basketball is totally that serious, and sending vile things to 20-year-olds is a perfectly rational thing for an adult to do with his or her time. Good job, Internet!) Neal was a top-100 recruit coming out of high school, and while he never really found his game in Albuquerque, a change of scenery -- and, maybe, a more open, Moody-light ball-handling role -- might be the perfect fit.

Even if that's true, it's unclear whether Kennedy will have the right mix of newcomers and returners to flirt with the NCAA tournament bubble next spring. Three players (Terry Brutus, Sam Finley, J.T. Escobar) left the program this year, and while they weren't significant contributors, they would have at least provided depth to a team that lost three seniors not named Stefan Moody. Forward Sebastian Saiz and wing Rasheed Brooks are bankable starters, and Marcanvis Hymon was a strong rebounder in reserve minutes a season ago. Meanwhile, a couple of three-star recruits (Nate Morris, Breein Tyree), a center from Latvia (Karlis Silins) and two junior college prospects (Justas Furmanavicius, Tyrek Coger) round out the rest of the non-Neal newcomers.

It's hard to see a top-half-of-the-SEC-level lineup there. Neal's rejuvenation is probably the best-case scenario. Worst case? Neal could fail to unlock his potential (or just be … OK), and the above mix simply isn't good enough to avoid being just the third team of Kennedy's tenure to slip below 20 wins.

That brings us back to the context. In a vacuum, you'd be likely to assume this team, with this roster, without Moody, will be rough. Really rough, even. Yet Kennedy's teams have quietly spent the past decade steadfastly refusing to stink. So, sure, the 2016-17 Rebels might not be good. But we wouldn't bet on bad.

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