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Looking ahead: Illinois faces make-or-break season

The Illini backcourt shows some promise, led by leading scorer Malcolm Hill. Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports

It’s never too early to look at what’s to come. Over the next few weeks, we will give you a peek at what is ahead for teams in the Power 5 conferences and some other teams expected to be players on the national scene. Next up: Illinois Fighting Illini.

It had been well over three decades since the last time Illinois missed the NCAA tournament for three consecutive seasons. It happened from 1978-80 ,and after last season’s injury-riddled campaign it has now happened from 2014-16. That’s not the kind of achievement John Groce needs on his resume, especially with newly hired athletic director Josh Whitman now in place. You may recall that on Whitman’s first day on the job, he fired Illini football coach Bill Cubit. Groce got a pass last season, but that good will won’t likely extend past March next year if the Illini fail to receive an NCAA tournament bid for a fourth straight year.

The bookends last season for Illini started and ended with off-the-court problems. Darius Paul's arrest in August during the Illini’s foreign tour in France led to his dismissal before the season started. Just hours after Purdue ended Illinois’ season in the Big Ten tournament, Jaylon Tate was arrested and charged with domestic battery. The senior guard was later reinstated to the team after prosecutors dropped the charges.

Next season isn’t off to a great start, either. Last week, the Illini announced the dismissal of senior guard Kendrick Nunn, the team’s second-leading scorer last season (15.5 points per game), after he pleaded guilty to misdemeanor domestic battery. Sophomore forward Leron Black will serve a four-game suspension to start the season after he received probation for misdemeanor aggravated assault.

Now for the good news. Black and Mike Thorne Jr. will be back to help bolster the frontcourt after playing a combined 15 games last season due to injuries. Black appeared in just seven games before a knee injury shut him down. Thorne, a graduate transfer from Charlotte, was granted a medical waiver to clear the way for his sixth year of eligibility. The 6-foot-11 center played seven games before tearing meniscus in his left knee. He returned for one game before suffering another setback and missed the rest of the season. He averaged 12.9 points and led the team with 8.5 rebounds before being sidelined.

The Illini will need the collective rebounding efforts of both after getting outrebounded by nearly six per game last season. Illinois also ranked 344th out of 351 Division I teams in offensive rebounding percentage last season, according to Ken Pomeroy. Black and Thorne should help toughen up a frontcourt that was overmatched on a lot of occasions last season.

Those injuries allowed forward Michael Finke and center Maverick Morgan to gain valuable experience; they started a combined 30 games. Finke, a 6-10 sophomore, shot 36 percent from 3-point range. Morgan, a 6-10 senior, had scored in double figures only once in his previous two seasons. He averaged a career-best 8.5 points and was the team-high scorer three times, including the season-finale loss to Purdue.

The Illini backcourt shows some promise, led by leading scorer Malcolm Hill. The 6-6 senior’s 18.1 scoring average ranked third in the Big Ten, and he was the lone Illini player to start every game. Two years ago, during the 2013-14 season, point guard Tracy Abrams also started every game. And that’s the last time he has appeared on the court. Abrams suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament before the 2014-15 season and was held out last season after an Achilles injury. Abrams led the team in assists as a sophomore and junior. But it’s hard to know what to expect from anyone who hasn’t played in two years. If he can return to his old form, he’ll give Illinois an experienced playmaker.

If Abrams isn’t effective, the Illini could look to freshman point guard Te’Jon Lucas to take the lead. Lucas will likely be the exception next season for Groce, who shouldn’t have to depend on first-time players in the lineup. Redshirt freshman Kipper Nichols is the only other rookie on the roster.

The hope for the Illini is that their sophomore class can make the expected improvements having made the adjustment to playing college basketball. Guard Jalen Coleman-Lands is a prime example. As a freshman, the 6-3 Indianapolis native shot 42.2 percent on 3-pointers, which led the team and tied for eighth in the league. But he was a bit one-dimensional. If he develops a midrange game – he shot just 38.4 percent on his 2-point attempts – he could be the scoring threat Illinois needs to take pressure off Hill.

The pressure on Groce, however, isn’t the kind that will get a reprieve short of Illinois getting back to the NCAA tournament.