It’s never too early to look at what’s to come. Over the next few weeks, we will give you a peek at what is ahead for teams in the Power 5 conferences and some other teams expected to be players on the national scene. Next up: Nebraska.
In 2012, Philadelphia 76ers center Jahlil Okafor's AAU coach arranged an unofficial visit to Lincoln, Nebraska, for the future lottery pick and his teammates.
Once they returned to Chicago, they gushed about the mini-palace Cornhuskers supporters assembled after they decided to invest serious cash in the school’s dormant basketball program. Those accoutrements included a state-of-the-art, $18 million practice facility, which features a locker room with tablet computers in each stall and three 65-inch TVs. The team’s $180 million home, Pinnacle Bank Arena, would add another jewel when it opened in 2013.
Okafor, the top prospect in the 2014 recruiting class who would go on to lead Duke to the NCAA title in his lone season of college basketball, attracted offers from every premier program in the United States.
We all knew Okafor would spend his six-month stint at the Division I level with one of the powerhouses. But his visit to Lincoln hinted at future success on the recruiting trail. Sure, Nebraska didn’t land Okafor, but it made the first step toward enhancing its talent pool: convincing elite prospects to visit. The program’s 2014 NCAA tournament appearance helped, too.
Huskers coach Tim Miles, a social-media titan who tweets during games, had trimmed the gap between his program and the Big Ten mountaintop Nebraska pursued. With Tim, the miles separating the school from the league’s top tier had become inches, it seemed.
But the Cornhuskers followed 2014’s run with back-to-back sub-.500, 18-loss seasons. In 2014-2015, Nebraska maintained its defensive edge (the program finished 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency in both 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, per KenPom.com) from the previous season, but its offense collapsed. The offense improved in 2015-16 but the defense’s efficiency fell into the 120s.
Nebraska also lost Shavon Shields (16.8 point per game), their leading scorer, and Benny Parker, one of the program’s best defenders, during the offseason.
It’s not all bad news, though. The Cornhuskers beat Michigan State, lost to Miami in overtime and nearly earned a neutral-site win over Cincinnati last season.
On Wednesday, Andrew White (16.6 PPG, 41.2 percent from the 3-point line), the team’s top returning scorer, announced that he would remain in Lincoln after withdrawing from the NBA draft. White is one of three starters returning for Nebraska; Tai Webster (10.1 PPG) and Glynn Watson Jr. (8.6 PPG) are also back.
“We are excited to have Andrew remain with our program,” Miles said in a statement from the school. “This has been a valuable time for him, as he has tested his skills against some of the best competition and received very important insight from key NBA personnel. We look forward to continuing to help Andrew's development to improve his NBA profile even more than he already has done through this process. I believe next year could be our most complete team with a great opportunity for success in the Big Ten and NCAA tournament. I'm happy Andrew will be with us to go out and prove it.”
Nebraska also signed Canadian center Jordy Tshimanga and two other three-star recruits. The program should continue to grow, even without Shields and Parker. Nebraska’s roster featured nine underclassmen last season. Those youngsters could blossom this offseason.
But we can’t talk about a return to the NCAA tournament. Not yet.
Let’s talk about Okafor.
His 2012 trip to Lincoln signaled a change in Nebraska basketball. The Huskers had the facilities, coach and promise to entice top talent. That’s how you transform a program. The bulk of those players, however, have swiped left.
Ed Morrow (53rd in the 2015 class, per RecruitingNation) and Watson (73rd) are the only top-100 prospects signed under Miles. Both could mature into standouts for the program. Yet, they represent Miles’s greatest challenge: replenishing with top talent each season.
If Nebraska’s defense is a no-show again, the school will lose a bunch of games in 2016-17, too. Nebraska lacks the star power necessary to compete (consistently) against the nation’s best teams. That’s what we learned about the program in recent years.
The only way to magnify a program’s spotlight on the national scene and convince the best prep players to join the fold is to win games. And Nebraska has failed in that venture since its run to the NCAA tournament in 2014.
So this is a crucial year for Miles. If his team struggles again, Miles will face significant questions about his ability to turn Nebraska into a perennial competitor in the Big Ten. Prep stars won’t visit Lincoln. And we’ll repeat this conversation next summer.
The school boasts the infrastructure to improve. But supporters will call those brick-and-mortar enhancements a wasted investment if Nebraska’s challenges persist in 2016-17.