It’s never too early to look at what’s to come. Over the next few weeks, we will give you a peek at what is ahead for teams in the Power 5 conferences and some other teams expected to be players on the national scene. Next up: Michigan.
The events that unfolded after Michigan’s 2015-16 campaign prompted contrasting reactions.
To some, the Wolverines had unraveled. Caris LeVert (16.5 points per game), who missed most of the season due to injuries, entered the NBA draft. Ricky Doyle (3.8 PPG), Aubrey Dawkins (6.5 PPG), Spike Albrecht (1.9 PPG) and Kam Chatman (2.8 PPG) all transferred. LaVall Jordan and Bacari Alexander, elite assistants who helped John Beilein create and guide his best Michigan teams, accepted head coaching jobs at UW-Milwaukee and Detroit, respectively.
That’s an ominous list. But it’s only the sidebar to a promising offseason that could lead to contention for the Big Ten title.
Beilein put together the most underrated coaching effort of his tenure in 2015-16. His star, LeVert, played just 15 games, and his defense failed to crack the top 100 of KenPom.com’s adjusted efficiency rankings. And the Wolverines still secured a slot in the NCAA tournament.
That postseason run should help the Michigan team we’ll see next season -- a group of athletes who represent stability in a league in flux.
Michigan State lost Denzel Valentine. Yogi Ferrell is gone. Nigel Hayes could leave Wisconsin. No more Jarrod Uthoff in Iowa or A.J. Hammons at Purdue. Maryland lost elite talent from its fleet, too. Multiple Big Ten squads will search for new stars next season, so a team with an identity now will enter 2016-17 with a cohesiveness its competitors may lack.
That’s Michigan’s advantage.
Derrick Walton Jr. (11.6 PPG, 4.5 assists per game), Zak Irvin (11.8 PPG), Mark Donnal (7.8 PPG) Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (8.6 PPG, 42nd in turnover rate per KenPom.com) and Duncan Robinson (11.2 PPG, 45 percent from the 3-point line) -- the experienced nucleus of last season’s squad -- all return. That’s the same crew that propelled the Wolverines in wins over Maryland, Purdue and Indiana. The same starting five that collected 59 of Michigan’s 67 points during its First Four victory over Tulsa.
Xavier Simpson (No. 48 in the 2016 class per RecruitingNation) is the only top-100 prospect among Michigan’s incoming freshmen. And that’s perfect for a squad coached by Beilein, who helped unheralded Trey Burke mature into the Associated Press national player of the year and a lottery pick. Simpson, Jon Teske, Austin Davis and Ibi Watson don’t represent the Big Ten’s top class, but it’s a group that Beilein will mold.
But will the Wolverines defend?
That’s the most critical question. They squeezed into the field of 68 after a year of spotty defense. This is a program that allowed opponents to make 51.1 percent of their shots inside the arc, 264th in the country per KenPom.com.
You can’t win conference titles like that. It’s difficult to advance to the second weekend like that.
Michigan finished 109th in adjusted defensive efficiency in 2015-16 -- the third consecutive season that the Wolverines finished outside the top 100 in KenPom.com’s ratings. They finished 48th the year they lost to Louisville in the 2013 national championship game.
Some coaches won’t adjust even when the numbers suggest they should. That’s not Beilein, who hired former Wright State coach Billy Donlon after losing Alexander and Jordan.
Donlon’s Wright State squad finished 30th in defensive efficiency in 2013. In three of the past four seasons, the Raiders’ defense earned top-60 rankings.
“That’s one of the reasons he was hired,” Beilein said of Donlon during a recent interview with the Detroit Free Press. “I’ve known him for years. When we played [UNC] Wilmington, he was playing there, their defense was just so good, consistent every day. And then I’ve watched him ever since then and see this great defense. Anybody who can hold Oakland to what they did, it’s really tough. ... [Oakland] scored a lot on Michigan State. So he’s a premier defensive talent.”
A squad that made 38 percent of its 3-pointers, 53 percent of its shots inside the arc and 74 percent of its free throws -- all top-40ish marks last year -- will get buckets in 2016-17, too. If they make the necessary improvements on defense, the Wolverines should compete for a spot in the Big Ten’s top tier.
A multitude of teams in that conference won’t complete its list of offseason unknowns before Wednesday, the day unrepresented players must withdraw from the NBA draft if they intend to return to school.
With a veteran unit returning, Michigan has more answers than questions right now. That -- not the departures and transfers -- is the key headline about Wolverines basketball. It’s the one that matters.