Who’s the favorite in each college basketball conference? And which teams are trending in the right (and wrong) directions? Over the next two weeks, we’re taking a look across the nation to see how college hoops’ most notable conferences are shaping up for next season. Today, the Big Ten.
These are heady times for the Big Ten Conference. Mike Slive is no longer in his SEC office, but Jim Delany remains in his. The king is (retired). Long live the king. The league boasts the reigning football champion, the first crowned via an actual playoff instead of an arbitrary assignment of human or computer, and years after conference realignment, the Big Ten is stronger and richer, if slightly less sensibly named.
Ah, but the but. What’s missing? A basketball championship, of course. It seems a little mean spirited to bring up now, after a year of so much accomplishment. Wisconsin not only made its second Final Four, but also slew the mighty Kentucky dragon to advance to the national title game. Michigan State predictably did the unpredictable. Like they always do, the Spartans got better in March (someday we won’t be so surprised by this) and joined the Badgers in Indianapolis. Maryland earned all of three votes in the preseason top 25 poll but finished the season ranked 16th.
And yet … despite a seven-teams-in-seven-years run of Final Four appearances, despite claiming two out of four spots this very year, the Big Ten is at 15 years and counting in its NCAA championship drought.
Could this be the season things change?
Maryland will be to 2016 as Wisconsin was to 2015, a prohibitive favorite to win the league and a popular choice for national champion. The Terps are that good, and that good in a season when the top of the national picture isn’t quite as crystal clear as it was a year ago.
Maryland isn’t the lone conference team in the hunt, either. The others – Indiana, Purdue and Michigan State - might be more longshots, but not so long as not to have a shot. The Hoosiers have experience, depth and a decent dose of desperation; the Boilermakers have height, size and height … and size; and as for the Spartans, you really want to count a Tom Izzo team out? Didn’t think so.
Look, the reality is Big Ten basketball is doing quite well.
It’s just missing that one little thing.
Favorite
Mark Turgeon is still on the hot seat, just with a different meaning. The Maryland coach has gone from hot, as in feeling the flames of pressure burning beneath him, to hot, as in the boss of the It team in college basketball. A surprise Big Ten contender in 2014-15, the Terps not only will be at the top of the league’s preseason predictions, but also at or very near to the top of most national rankings. Melo Trimble, the breakout star of last season, gets backcourt help in the form of Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon while Jake Layman, Maryland’s leading rebounder and third-leading scorer, gets a frontcourt assist from freshman center Diamond Stone. (Off topic, but the Terps also might lead the nation in coolest names per roster. Melo Trimble and Diamond Stone? C’mon.) Mix in Robert Carter, quality depth from Dion Wiley, Jared Nickens and Michal Cekovsky and Maryland will be as heavily favored to win the Big Ten this year as Wisconsin was last. The challenge, as it is for any team suddenly thrust into the spotlight, is not wilting under the pressure.
Trending up
Normalcy should return to Bloomington (normalcy being a very good Indiana basketball team), Purdue is good enough not just to make the NCAA tournament but also win a game or more there, and Michigan, with a healthy Caris LeVert, ought to look more like Michigan. But if we’re talking significant trending, the nod has to go to Northwestern. Chris Collins already has rehabilitated the long-sagging program and pulled the Wildcats out of their traditional spot in the Big Ten basement (hat tip to Rutgers). Now with a solid returning base of Tre Demps, Alex Olah and Vic Law, plus a legit top 100 recruit in Aaron Falzon (ranked 75th in the ESPN 100), it’s not outlandish to think Northwestern will be a viable, mid-pack, competitive team in the league. And for the Wildcats, that’s a big trend up.
Trending down
Ok, this is trending down with an asterisk. Wisconsin is the answer but the down, after back-to-back Final Four appearances, is relative. Wisconsin will still be good – Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig make for a pretty good place to start rebuilding a team – but without Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, Josh Gasser and Traevon Jackson the Badgers simply can’t be as good. Which means, no doubt, that Bo Ryan will turn his farewell tour into a victory lap.
Notable newcomers
Indiana matches Maryland’s grad transfer/rookie combo of Sulaimon and Stone with an equally powerful pair in Max Bielfeldt and Thomas Bryant. Charlotte transfer Mike Thorne is a critical pickup for Illinois. Penn State welcomes a top 100 recruit in Josh Reaves, and Michigan State’s Eron Harris will be a nice addition should Izzo lift the indefinite suspension Harris earned before playing a second, courtesy of a DUI. But the biggest boost? That might come from Caleb Swanigan. Originally a Michigan State commit, Swanigan opened his recruitment late and ended up with Purdue, alma mater of his football-playing adopted father, Roosevelt Barnes. The end of the freshman’s recruiting tap made a formidable Boilermaker frontline downright frightening as Swanigan, a tough low-post presence in his own right, joins 7-footers Isaac Haas and A.J. Hammons.