Things got complicated early in the Big Ten, a bullish assembly in recent years.
The league's nonconference struggles foretold of the weary road ahead, it seemed. Michigan (Eastern Michigan, NJIT) and Michigan State (Texas Southern) bore the brunt of the early criticism of a league in peril after both schools suffered losses to low-major programs they'd paid to travel to (and lose in) their home venues.
They weren't alone. Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word. Eastern Washington beat Indiana in Bloomington. North Florida and Gardner-Webb topped Purdue.
What a mess.
Wisconsin's shine couldn't hide the Big Ten's rough opening chapter. But here it is again -- that gauntlet of a league, still contending for a significant number of seeds. Seven, if you ask Joe Lunardi. Somehow, the Big Ten always finds its groove in time for Selection Sunday.
Wisconsin, the league's champ, is still alive for a No. 1 seed. Maryland should earn a healthy seed, too.
Things could fall apart in Chicago, though. Purdue, Illinois and Indiana might need some help this week.
It's fascinating, however, that the Big Ten might lead the nation in NCAA tournament berths in what was supposed to be a "down" year for the conference.
What's at stake?
In its season finale, Wisconsin beat a top-25 Ohio State squad 72-48 in Columbus. The Badgers are still in the running for a No. 1 seed. Duke, Virginia and Kentucky seem to have control of three top seeds, but that fourth slot is a question mark with Villanova, Arizona, Gonzaga and Wisconsin still fighting for it, many presume.
A dominant run through the Big Ten tournament that includes a win over the Maryland team that defeated the Badgers a few weeks ago would be beneficial for Wisconsin on Selection Sunday. Kentucky will be the top overall seed in the field. A No. 1 seed would guarantee that Wisconsin wouldn't see the potent Wildcats until Indianapolis, if both advance to that stage.
Those stakes are minimal compared to the rest, though. Wisconsin is a national title contender regardless of its seed.
Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa and Michigan State should join the Badgers in the field of 68.
For Indiana, Illinois and Purdue, however, Chicago's events could impact their final case to the selection committee.
Indiana's complication-filled season has been well-documented. Tom Crean's team ended the regular season with three consecutive losses (at Northwestern, Iowa and Michigan State) that put the Hoosiers (4-8 in their past 12 games) in a difficult position as the Big Ten tourney approaches.
Purdue is trending upward right now. Matt Painter's squad has some tough losses to teams like Gardner-Webb, Kansas State and North Florida, but the Boilermakers have won five of their past seven games. And they've secured the fourth seed in the conference tourney, which likely sets them up for a Friday matchup against Iowa. Of the three Big Ten bubble teams, Purdue has the most security. If Penn State or Nebraska upsets Iowa and faces Purdue in the quarterfinals, things could get interesting for the Boilermakers if they lose.
Illinois? John Groce's squad might need two wins to earn a bid, and that would require a Thursday win over Michigan and a Friday victory over top seed Wisconsin. Not an easy slate for Illinois, but it might be necessary to clinch the program's second trip to the NCAA tournament in three seasons.
Team with most to gain
Groce's program will be forgiven if it misses the Big Dance this year. Groce has dealt with a variety of transfers, suspensions and injuries all season. Illinois is not in a good spot entering the Big Ten tournament, but the impressive recruiting class Groce has signed for 2015 would make Illinois fans forget about a trip to the NIT, if that's where the team lands.
Crean and Indiana are in a different situation, and therefore, the Hoosiers have the most to gain. They need a bid and the Big Ten tourney could be the stage that preserves or crushes that dream.
Let's talk about an athletic director making a public statement about his head coach's job security. It's never a good thing, so it shouldn't be viewed that way. Sure, Fred Glass said Crean is safe. But what he really meant to say was Crean is safe … for now.
A messy stretch in Chicago and an NIT berth for a devoted fan base of one of the game's greatest programs would only add to the pessimistic vibe surrounding the team right now. And it would only magnify the pressure on Crean once 2015-16 began. The entire world would know that another subpar effort would be his undoing.
No team in Chicago has more to gain (or lose) than Indiana.