When big sporting events approach, there is no shortage of prop bets to keep fans interested in the games within the games. How long will a rendition of our national anthem last? What is the over/under on the number of completions "Quarterback X" will make?
With that idea in mind, Brian Bennett and Jesse Temple share their opinions all week on the Big Ten blog about various over/under marks they've set in anticipation of the 2016 season. In today's Take Two, they look at the number of regular-season victories for defending Big Ten champion Michigan State.
Michigan State's over/under win total: 8.5.
Brian Bennett: Over
We’ve been here before with Michigan State, haven’t we? The metrics might not love Mark Dantonio’s team from year to year -- the FPI, which factors in recruiting rankings, has the Spartans basically even with Penn State for some odd reason. The advanced stats have value, but at some point you have to trust your eyes and recent history.
Michigan State has won 11 or more games in five of the past six seasons. The one down year in that span involved some horrible luck in close games, and that 2012 bunch still won seven games and beat TCU in a bowl. Of course, past performance does not guarantee future success, and it’s true that the Spartans have some personnel holes to fill. Replacing Connor Cook, who was the winningest quarterback in school history, is no small task. Three All-Americans in the trenches -- defensive end Shilique Calhoun, center Jack Allen and left tackle Jack Conklin -- are also gone, as well as Big Ten receiver of the year Aaron Burbridge. Notre Dame, Ohio State, Wisconsin and, yes, Michigan all lurk on the schedule.
Yet, Dantonio has shown that he and his staff can reload when stars leave. They’ve still got some of the best players at their position in the Big Ten, like defensive tackle Malik McDowell and linebacker Riley Bullough, while youngsters Brian Allen, L.J. Scott and Vayante Copeland are ascending. These guys have more than earned our trust by now. Forget the metrics. At the end of the season, I believe we’ll look up and see that the Spartans have posted double-digit wins yet again.
Jesse Temple: Over
As Brian pointed out, it's awfully hard to ignore the fact that Michigan State has won at least 11 games in five of the last six seasons. That's an amazing accomplishment and something that doesn't garner enough national recognition. In the last three seasons, Michigan State is 36-5 and one of only two teams to finish in the top 10 in the final Associated Press poll in each of those years, alongside Alabama. I know the Spartans are losing a ton of quality players at key positions, but I believe in Mark Dantonio and what he's built in East Lansing.
According to the FPI, Michigan State is favored in eight of its 12 regular-season games. Of those eight games, the three that appear most difficult come against Wisconsin, BYU and Northwestern. But here's the rub: All those games take place at Spartan Stadium, and the importance of home-field advantage in college football cannot be overstated. Michigan State is 20-1 at home in the last three seasons.
On the whole, Michigan State's schedule looks pretty manageable. If the Spartans can win the games they're expected to, then that leaves one other team they would have to beat to reach nine regular-season victories. For whatever reason, the FPI favors Penn State in the regular-season finale, even though Michigan State beat Penn State 55-16 last season and 34-10 in 2014. That game certainly seems winnable for the Spartans. In other words, expect Michigan State to be in the thick of the Big Ten East race, with the outcome being determined once again by what happens against Michigan and Ohio State.