Brian Bennett, ESPN Staff Writer 8y

Take Two: Who will lead Big Ten in interceptions in 2016?

All this week, Josh Moyer and I will offer our picks on who will lead the Big Ten in several individual statistical categories this fall. Today's Take Two looks at who will be this year's interceptions leader in 2016.

Take 1: Josh Moyer

Of all the stats we’ve tried to project and leaders we’ve tried to predict, none are more of a crapshoot than interceptions. That’s why I’m not just trying to pick the best defensive back here; I’m picking a playmaker who will have opportunities.

I’m taking Maryland’s Will Likely.

Sure, he had no interceptions last season. But he and Ohio State’s Vonn Bell led the conference in 2014 with six picks apiece. (Like I said, crapshoot.) And the fact is that opposing offensive coordinators just aren’t afraid of Likely – not the way they are with Michigan’s Jourdan Lewis or Iowa’s Desmond King. That's important here, because it means more interception opportunities for Likely.

Likely is a talented player – he’s fast and instinctive – but he’s also just 5-foot-7. He’ll make a lot of big plays, but he’ll also give up his fair share of big plays. (Just look at last season’s 45-6 loss to West Virginia.) But whatever Likely lacks when it comes to being a shutdown corner, he mostly makes up for when it comes to his playmaking ability.

He returned two picks for touchdowns in 2014, and I see more of that coming again in 2016. King and Lewis might be better, but it’s sure hard to record an interception when no one throws your way.

Take 2: Brian Bennett

Josh is right that projecting interceptions is often an exercise in futility. It's just not a stat that seems to carry over year by year. For example, Michigan's Blake Countess tied for the league lead in interceptions in 2013 with six. The next season, he had zero. Likely followed an eerily similar path in 2014 and 2015.

I think there are a couple of reasons for this. One, interceptions are a bit fluky, as a defensive player has to be in the right spot at the right time and make a catch (often not the easiest thing in the world, as they're playing defense for a reason). And two, the better a cornerback is, the more opposing offenses try to avoid throwing his way.

So who the heck knows who will lead this category in 2016? But Iowa's King deserves the nod here, based on his incredible 2015 performance.

King's eight interceptions tied a school record and ranked second in the FBS. Only 10 players in Big Ten history have ever had more picks in a season. No wonder he won the Jim Thorpe Award.

King also set the Michigan high school record with 29 career interceptions, so his instincts for the ball are off the charts. Even if teams shy away from his side of the field, as they did toward the latter half of last season, he knows how to make the most of his chances. Predicting another eight interceptions would be silly. Heck, trying to predict interceptions, period, is silly. But until proven otherwise, King stays the king in my book.

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