It’s almost August, a glorious month that marks the official return of college football. Big Ten media days begin Thursday in Chicago. To whet your appetite, we’ve set a bar over the past few days for every league team, analyzing why it may or may not be reached in 2015.
Purdue is up next.
The Boilermakers are riding a rough stretch under third-year coach Darrell Hazell, who counts wins over Indiana State (in 2013), Western Michigan, Southern Illinois and Illinois last year. Hazell’s team is still young at many key spots and must replace its top playmakers, Akeem Hunt and Raheem Mostert, but some signs are encouraging after the Boilermakers appeared close to making a leap midway through last season. Before Purdue can think about an upper-division finish or a return to the postseason, a milestone awaits for Hazell -- his first Big Ten win at Ross-Ade Stadium.
Why Purdue will win a league game at home in 2015
The schedule: The Boilers play in the Big Ten West -- a compromised group in comparison to the East. Purdue’s first year in the West produced a road win at Illinois and competitive showings against Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Purdue also pushed Michigan State and lost by a touchdown to Indiana out of the East. This year, the Huskers and Gophers visit West Lafayette, among the least intimidating venues in the Big Ten for a road team. The best chance for a Big Ten home win, though, comes in November against Illinois or Indiana. The Illini may crumble if adversity strikes, and Purdue hasn’t lost three straight to the Hoosiers since the 1940s.
An improving defense: Let’s face it, the Purdue defense has ranked as a major handicap of late. It ranked 12th in the league last year in scoring, allowing 31.7 points per game, and 111th nationally two years ago. But these guys are getting better, especially at linebacker, where sophomores Danny Ezechukwu and Ja’Whaun Bentley team with junior Jimmy Herman to form an underrated unit that rates in the top half of the West Division. Up front, tackle Jake Replogle is experienced, and ends Gelen Robinson and Evan Panfil are athletic. Senior Frankie Williams is a playmaker at corner. Notable strides may not be far away.
Why Purdue won’t win a league game at home in 2015
Continued instability at quarterback: The Boilermakers historically go as far as their quarterback play carries them. And under Hazell, it’s been something of a mess. Danny Etling, now gone to LSU, struggled as a true freshman in 2013. Austin Appleby delivered a spark in relief of Etling last year, but Appleby’s effectiveness slipped in the second half of last season -- aided by a knee injury to top receiver Danny Anthrop. Anthrop is back, but is Appleby? He’s mired in a race with redshirt freshman David Blough. The longer this remains unsettled, the more likely Purdue is to wade through another fall without a well-defined offensive leader.
The confidence factor: Hard to believe that Purdue’s last home win in league play, before a 2012 victory over Indiana, came in 2011 over Ohio State. That was a far different time for the Boilermakers and the Buckeyes, who are separated by as wide a gap as exists in any Power 5 league. How much has Purdue’s slide impacted the psyche of its players? Even proven veterans like Williams and senior center Robert Kugler haven’t tasted more than a small measure of success since their freshman seasons. When Purdue worked its way into close games last year, its lack of recent success showed. The Boilermakers are good enough to win a Big Ten home game -- or two -- this year, but do they believe it yet?