College football season is fast approaching. Soon we'll be flush with teams laying out their plans for the coming season and updates from August training camps. In the meantime, we're setting a bar for each team in the conference and weighing in on why they may or may not reach it during the 2015 season.
Northwestern appeared to turn a corner under coach Pat Fitzgerald in 2012 when the team won 10 games and beat Mississippi State on New Year's Day to cap the season. Since then, the Wildcats have posted back-to-back five-win seasons and are slipping back toward the bottom rung of the Big Ten ladder. Fitzgerald's job isn't in any danger, but a return to the postseason would be a welcome sight in Evanston.
The school's affinity for playing other universities with strong academic recommendations has actually made Northwestern's path to six regular-season wins more challenging this season. They open with games against Stanford and Duke, who have combined to win 38 games in the past two years, in the first three weeks of the seasons. A pair of losses there would require a .500 record in league play in order to avoid a third straight year without a bowl game. Can the Wildcats find a way to get to six wins?
Why Northwestern will make a bowl game in 2015
Justin Jackson: It wouldn't be the first time that a Big Ten team rode a good defense and one star player on offense to a successful season. Jackson had a standout freshman season in 2014, rushing for nearly 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns to provide his team with its only regular offensive sparks. The 5-foot-11, 185-pound runner should be stronger and sturdier after a full year on campus. He can help answer a lot of questions for an offense that still has major issues to sort through a year after finishing 101st nationally in scoring.
Turnovers (the good kind): Northwestern's defense did its part to put the team in position to win games a year ago. The Wildcats created 27 turnovers (24th nationally) including 10 during a three-game stretch where they beat Western Illinois, Penn State and No. 17 Wisconsin.
While safety Ibraheim Campbell (who was responsible for seven of those takeaways) is gone, the important elements for creating turnovers remain. The secondary will be one of the strongest units on the field for Northwestern and a sturdy, experienced defensive line should be able to generate enough pressure to force some opponents into bad decisions. The Wildcats upset two top-25 teams last season (Wisconsin and Notre Dame) by forcing eight turnovers in those two matchups. A ball hawking defense could be an equalizer against more talented opposition again in 2015.
Why Northwestern won't make a bowl game in 2015
Inexperience under center: Three players will compete for the starting job at quarterback next month. The winner will have, at best, two collegiate touchdown passes. Those belong to senior Zack Oliver, the largest and most experienced of the competitors. He'll be battling with sophomore Matt Alviti and redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson, who appeared to be the frontrunner at the end of spring practice. Trying to win with a young quarterback will put even more pressure on the defense.
No big plays on offense: As the guys at InsideNU.com point out, Northwestern had the worst isolated points per play rating among FBS schools last season. In other words, they had a hard time creating explosive plays. The problem in 2014 was equal parts personnel and play calling.
Jackson was a steady force, but wasn't the type of back who regularly broke loose for big gains. The passing game offered even fewer options for the deep ball. Drops plagued the Northwestern receivers and led the offense to average only 5.7 yards per passing attempt. Senior Christian Jones returns after missing all of last season with a knee injury. He adds a consistent target for whoever starts at quarterback, but the Wildcats will have to find more big-play threats and more ways to set them loose if they hope to put together a more potent offensive attack and keep pace with the other improving offenses in the Big Ten.