College football season is fast approaching. Soon we’ll be flush with teams laying out their plans for the coming season and updates from August training camps. In the meantime, we’re setting a bar for each team in the conference and weighing in on why they may or may not reach it during the 2015 season.
Rutgers finished its first season in the Big Ten last year with an impressive 8-5 record. To get there, the Scarlet Knights had to run the table in nonconference play and eke out a couple close wins against Michigan and Maryland. The season ended on a high note with an impressive 40-21 win over North Carolina in the Quick Lane Bowl.
Head coach Kyle Flood doesn’t believe his team has approached its ceiling yet, but winning games in the brutal Big Ten East Division isn’t easy. If Rutgers can reel off another eight-win season it will show it has the potential to bring more to the conference than just the New York City area television market. Does Flood’s team have the pieces to keep momentum headed in the right direction for the program?
Why Rutgers will win at least eight games in 2015
Playmakers: Close games are won with big, momentum-shifting plays, and Rutgers has a pair of difference-makers on offense this season who can provide their team with the edge it needs in those tightly contested battles.
Wide receiver Leonte Carroo has the potential to be the top wide receiver in the conference this year, especially when it comes to long receptions. Almost half of his catches (21 of 55) went for more than 20 yards last season. Fellow New Jersey native Paul James will be healthy to start the season after missing most of last year with a torn ACL. The former walk-on was statistically neck-and-neck with the league’s best backs before his injury. Rutgers has a good supporting cast in the backfield this year that should help keep James fresh and healthy enough to grind out important yardage during the fourth quarter of close games.
Better on the defensive line: Rutgers allowed 212.3 yards per game on the ground against a heavy diet of Big Ten offenses last year. Only Illinois allowed more among conference teams. Another year of shaping the roster to better fit the physical style played in their new league should help the Scarlet Knights be better prepared to slow down the run.
The pass rush was a bright spot in the trenches for Rutgers last year. They finished fourth in the league with 33 total sacks. That number should improve this year with the return of senior Darius Hamilton on the inside and the continued improvement of sophomore Kemoko Turay. A relative newcomer to football, Turay used raw athleticism to make a splash as an edge rusher in his rookie season. An extra year of practice and tutelage from Hamilton should make him a more dangerous and consistent player.
Why Rutgers won’t win eight games in 2015
Uncertainty at quarterback: Gary Nova had an up-and-down career at Rutgers, but four years of experience as a starter is impossible to replace. Redshirt sophomores Chris Laviano and Hayden Rettig battled for the starting job this spring, but neither has claimed the top spot yet. Flood said Laviano was slightly ahead after the spring game, but that was mostly because he has some in-game experience while Rettig had to sit out all of last season after transferring from LSU. Whoever wins the job will have considerably less experience than Nova, and will have to get comfortable running the show in a hurry.
Brutal Big Ten schedule: It’s hard to find a conference slate less forgiving than what Rutgers will face this fall. Not only do the Scarlet Knights have to navigate the increasingly daunting East Division, but in some form of rookie schedule hazing they also have drawn Wisconsin and Nebraska in their two cross-divisional games during their first two years in the league. They host both Ohio State and Michigan State in night games in October before traveling to intimidating atmospheres at Michigan and Wisconsin on back-to-back weekends.
All four nonconference games (Norfolk State, Washington State, Kansas and Army) should be victories, but adding four more wins will take an upset or two in Big Ten play and a successful bowl trip. Rutgers may be improving, but proof might not show up in the win column until they get some more favorable matchups against West Division foes in the future.