Jake Trotter, ESPN Staff Writer 9y

Buckeyes are biggest roadblock for TCU, Baylor to No. 4

Mississippi State might still be holding on to the coveted No. 4 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings for the moment.

But the gravest threat to the Frogs of Fort Worth and the Bears of the Brazos for playoff inclusion appears to reside north of the Mason-Dixon Line.

The playoff selection committee released its weekly rankings Tuesday night, and TCU held steady at No. 5 despite having the week off. After dispatching Oklahoma State and its plucky true freshman quarterback, Baylor remained ranked seventh.

But while the Big 12 duo hangs tough in the playoff chase, their playoff future could hinge on sixth-ranked Ohio State.

Unlike Baylor, the Buckeyes have no wins over another playoff contender.

Unlike TCU, the Buckeyes have a loss against an unranked opponent.

And unlike Baylor and TCU, Ohio State does not compete in one of the three best conferences in college football.

But going into the final two weeks of the season, the Buckeyes seem to be the apple of the committee’s eye for the lone playoff spot currently up for grabs.

If the season ended today, Mississippi State would be in the playoff over TCU, Ohio State and Baylor. But following Ole Miss’ 30-0 loss at Arkansas last weekend, the Egg Bowl has lost its luster, robbing the Bulldogs of a chance to boost their relatively thin résumé with a victory over a Top 10 team. Mississippi State has only one victory over a Top 25 team (Auburn) to go along with a nonconference slate of Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama and Tennessee-Martin. Assuming that Alabama wins the Iron Bowl, Mississippi State would not represent the West Division in the SEC title game, either.

Committee chairman Jeff Long stressed Tuesday night that “conference championships will be a tiebreaker factored in at the end of the season.” And if Mississippi State, TCU, Ohio State and Baylor are all as close in the minds of the committee as Long has suggested, Mississippi State, based on that tiebreaker disadvantage, would be the odd dog out.

That brings us back to the Buckeyes.

The committee seems to be giving Ohio State a pass for its 35-21 loss in Columbus on Sept. 6 to 5-6 Virginia Tech. Long even quashed the premise that Virginia Tech constituted a bad loss for Ohio State. (He must have missed the Hokies’ 6-3 double-overtime loss to lowly Wake Forest over the weekend.)

With the committee inexplicably overlooking the Virginia Tech loss, the Buckeyes seem to be in prime position for the fourth spot. Ohio State is ranked ahead of Baylor, and if both teams won out, there’s no reason to believe that would change. Sure, the Bears have No. 12 Kansas State next weekend. But the Buckeyes potentially would have No. 14 Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Beating the Badgers at a neutral site would seemingly offset a Baylor victory over K-State in Waco.

The Buckeyes would still have to jump TCU. But if a victory over Wisconsin alone weren’t enough to catapult Ohio State past the Horned Frogs, the addition of the Big Ten title in a 13th game probably would. Sure, TCU would technically be co-champs of the Big 12. But the committee would likely favor a sole champion of one conference over a co-champ of another that would also have a tiebreaker problem with the other co-champ.

All of this, of course, is just speculation with games still to be staged. Much can still happen in these final two weeks.

Oregon could lose the Civil War and Alabama could lose the Iron Bowl. Florida or Georgia Tech could beat Florida State and Wisconsin could topple the Buckeyes.

Heck, Minnesota could still even win the Big Ten title, which would be quite the early Christmas present for the folks in Fort Worth.

So both Baylor and TCU remain very much alive in the playoff hunt.

But Big 12’s biggest roadblock to the fourth playoff spot lies not in Starkville.

But rather, smack in the heart of Ohio.

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