The first-place Baltimore Ravens are the better team on paper than the Cincinnati Bengals. They’re the hotter team and they’re the healthier one. But the X-factor is Cincinnati’s Paul Brown Stadium.

While Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has played and won in tougher atmospheres, he has repeatedly struggled in Cincinnati. He has a 2-4 record there, which are as many losses as he’s had in Pittsburgh and Cleveland combined. Flacco has thrown five touchdowns and nine interceptions in Cincinnati for a 62.0 passer rating.

The Bengals certainly do not have the dominant defense it has had in recent seasons. They're 30th against the run and 27th against the pass. Where the Bengals remain strong is in the red zone, where their defense is ranked No. 10. The Ravens' inability to punch the ball in the end zone will be the difference.

My prediction: Bengals 20, Ravens 16

My record this year (straight up): 6-1