New England Patriots vice president of player personnel Nick Caserio took part in a football panel at the 2015 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference on Saturday, and here is one nugget that captures the essence of the discussion:
Moderator Robert Mays of Grantland asked Caserio about the acquisition of linebacker/defensive end Akeem Ayers in a 2014 midseason trade, and how the team projected Ayers' ability to execute techniques he wasn’t asked to do with the Tennessee Titans.
What numbers, data and analytics are used to support making that deal?
“The numbers that you really have to work off are actual production -- tackles, assists, sacks, quarterback hurries, quarterback pressures. Then you have to look at the player within the scheme of how he is actually used,” Caserio answered.
“So in Akeem’s situation, he played off the line of scrimmage in college [at UCLA]. He played on the line of scrimmage a little bit, but he was [mostly] playing from a two-point stance. Then he started 40 some-odd games for the Titans his first three years, played as an off the line of scrimmage linebacker. They made a coaching change [in his fourth season], a scheme change, so it just didn’t happen to work out.
“So really what you do, you go back -- and this is where your draft process merges with your pro personnel evaluation process -- to college and go through your reports and ‘how did we evaluate this player coming out?’ Here are the metrics we used. That’s when you can go back and look at the size [and] speed, sort the measurables he had and look at his actual production, and then look at what happened in the NFL and whether or not it is a match and makes sense.
“You’re taking previous information that you’ve accumulated with information that is happening in the league, and ultimately making the decision. In the end, it was just kind of a mismatch probably between scheme and what he was asked to do.
“When we got Akeem, we weren’t quite exactly sure how it would go, because until you actually have the player you’re not sure how it’s going to work out. He showed his versatility and we were able to use him in a multitude of roles and he was able to benefit the team as a result. We were fortunate that it worked out the way it did.”
Later in the panel, Caserio shared an interesting analytics-based nugget on Chandler Jones in the 2012 draft process.
Caserio shared that Jones' height and weight met the team's standards, as did his arm length, while his 10-yard split was a bit lower than desired. While those things were easier to quantify, Caserio then noted how Jones' ability to play with leverage, bend and collapse the pocket was much tougher to quantify from a data perspective.