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NC State might officially have been awarded “sleeper” status in the ACC. Over the course of the last two weeks, the Wolfpack are one of the teams igniting the most discussion among us within the ACC blog and beyond. While on a radio interview Wednesday, I was asked whether they have a legitimate chance to win the Atlantic. In the program’s third year under Dave Doeren, what are the expectations for a program that clearly has an arrow pointing up? How good should NC State be in 2015 and how many wins will constitute a successful season? The roster could still use a few more recruiting cycles to get the offensive and defensive lines and the groups’ depth to where it needs to be, but overall their starting lineups on offense and defense are experienced and productive.  Quarterback Jacoby Brissett is a solid quarterback and he’s flanked in the backfield by Shadrach Thornton -- only two ACC backs were tackled for no gain or a loss at a better rate -- and budding star Matt Dayes. The offensive line returns three starters, and despite the unexpected departure of Bo Hines at receiver, the coaches have expressed confidence in the receivers and tight ends.
Defensively, the Wolfpack lost a number of key contributors but the back seven is loaded with experience. There are concerns along the defensive line, but former blue-chip recruits Darian Roseboro and Kentavius Street have transitioned nicely. With the talent and experience returning, NC State is undoubtedly poised for another winning season and bowl game. But those were the top goals for 2014, and aspirations should be higher in Year 3 with a more seasoned and talented roster. When taking the schedule into account too, it almost demands the Wolfpack finish the regular season 8-4 (assuming they stay relatively healthy), but even that could warrant disappointment around Raleigh, North Carolina. A doughy nonconference schedule includes three Group of 5 schools and an FCS opponent, so for a second straight season the Wolfpack should be 4-0 entering the ACC. The Atlantic is the tougher division right now, but it could be looking at a down year. Florida State (11 draft picks) and Louisville (10) are recovering from a rash of departures, and Clemson’s tasked with replacing its three best defensive players and almost an entire defensive line. Breaking down the Wolfpack’s schedule, there are six should-be wins with the four nonconference games plus Syracuse and Wake Forest. That leaves Louisville, at Virginia Tech (on a Friday night), Clemson, at Boston College, at Florida State and North Carolina. Virginia Tech will be coming off a game against Pittsburgh, which has running back James Conner, who plows through defenses with bad intentions. Clemson comes after a road game at Miami. Florida State hosts the Wolfpack but after a five-week stretch that includes rival Miami and Louisville and road games at Georgia Tech and Clemson. The Seminoles travel to Clemson the week before NC State rolls into Tallahassee. NC State needs to go at least 3-3 in those games, but ideally if it can upset any of their biggest Atlantic threats, it should get the Wolfpack to 9-3 and keep them involved in the division race through November. For that to happen, Brissett will have to be more consistent. He flashed greatness at certain points, but his inexperience cost the Wolfpack in some games. He ranked 20th in raw QBR at the end of September; he was 73rd from October through the end of the season. It isn’t simply throwing with more accuracy either, as Brissett and his offensive line need to work in better union. The offensive line will have its ups and downs -- former ESPN 300 guard Will Richardson might solidify the group -- but Brissett needs to do a better job of getting rid of the football in rhythm. As David Hale points out, Brissett was hit a lot after that blistering September and he wasn’t holding onto the football, either. Defensively, the Wolfpack frankly need to drastically improve, especially at getting off the field. Only North Carolina was worse on third downs, and the Wolfpack’s average defensive drive covered 2:38, second worst among Power 5 schools. As talented as the back seven is in Raleigh, a youthful defensive line needs to emerge. Roseboro and Street have done so in practice, but will it translate to the fall? Are there enough pieces around them and fellow starters B.J. Hill and Mike Rose? If the Wolfpack can generate pressure, it should help a defense that was 47th in scoring among Power 5 teams against Power 5 opponents. NC State’s roster is still a few years away from being where Doeren would like it, but the schedule and circumstances surrounding the ACC have the Wolfpack in position to make a run. Are they a sleeper? They should be.
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