Russell Athletic Bowl: Clemson (9-3) vs. Oklahoma (8-4)
Dec. 29, 5:30 p.m., Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Fla. (ESPN)
Key matchup: Wayne Gallman vs. Sooners’ D
Why it matters: There were two different Clemson offenses this year -- the one with Deshaun Watson and the one without him. In the Tigers’ bowl game, they’ll be without the freshman sensation, and that’s bad news for the offense. Cole Stoudt struggled badly down the stretch, and as good as Clemson’s D has been all year, it’ll be tough to beat Oklahoma without finding the end zone on offense. That means the onus is likely going to be on Gallman and the Tigers’ running game to keep some balance, take the pressure off Stoudt, convert short-yardage plays and chew up some clock. That hadn’t been an overly successful game plan for much of the season, but Gallman finished the year strong, topping 100 yards in three of his final five games, including a 27-carry, 191-yard performance in the regular-season finale against South Carolina.
Who wins: While Oklahoma is getting healthy on offense, Clemson will finish up the year with Stoudt at quarterback, and that’s a major concern. Against Power 5 opponents this season, Stoudt had just four touchdowns with nine interceptions and averaged a woeful 5.5 yards per attempt. Given his shaky finish to the season and the coaching turnover with Chad Morris leaving, it’s hard to envision Clemson staking the game on Stoudt, so Oklahoma figures to be keyed in on Gallman and the ground game. Linebacker Eric Striker leads a Sooners D that ranked eighth nationally, allowing just 110 yards per game against FBS foes this year, so they’re more than capable of slowing Clemson’s ground attack, and while Gallman finished strong, the Tigers’ running backs averaged just 4.26 yards per rush against Power 5 foes this year -- 52nd out of 65 Power 5 teams. Perhaps Vic Beasley & Co. can create a couple turnovers on defense to swing the game, but if it comes down to Clemson’s O carrying the day, the formula is a little tough to envision.
Prediction: Oklahoma 21, Clemson 17.