Capital One Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-3) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2)

Dec. 31, 8 p.m. ET, Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. (ESPN)

Key matchup: Dak Prescott vs. Georgia Tech defensive front

Why it matters: At lot of small things go into deciding wins and losses on a football field, but here’s a fairly telling stat: In Mississippi State’s 10 wins, Prescott had a Total QBR of 81.4 and a 21-to-7 TD:INT ratio. In its two losses, Prescott’s QBR was 34.0 with three touchdowns and three picks. It’s oversimplifying to say that as Prescott goes, so goes Mississippi State, but it’s certainly true that the Bulldogs are a much easier offense to defend when Prescott is off his game. On the flip side, Georgia Tech’s defense has struggled to disrupt the opposing quarterback throughout this season, and the ACC Championship Game was a perfect example of just how porous the Yellow Jackets’ D can be when it gives a top quarterback time in the pocket. In games when Tech records two sacks or more this year, it’s 6-0 and allows an average of 18 points per game. In games when it has zero or one sack, the record is just 4-3 and the D surrenders an average of 31 points per game.

Who wins: The smart money is probably on Prescott and the Bulldogs here. Not only is Tech’s pass rush among the most listless in the Power 5, but Prescott’s mobility and Josh Robinson's playmaking ability will only help to temper the Yellow Jackets’ aggressiveness. Of course, none of this is a secret to Tech DC Ted Roof either, and with a month to prep and get healthy (including the possible return of Jabari Hunt-Days), it’s certainly possible that the Jackets will look far sharper defensively than they did against Florida State. And if Prescott does make a mistake, Tech is more than capable of capitalizing. Perhaps as important, too, is that Tech’s offense should be able to move the ball against Mississippi State, chewing up some clock and limiting Prescott’s opportunities to create the big play. In the end, it may not be a great performance for either defense, but whichever one can come up with a couple of key stops could be the difference in a high-scoring affair. We’ll go with Tech, 41-38.