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For Miami fans, there's been perhaps no better reason for optimism this season than the development of quarterback Brad Kaaya. The true freshman won the starting job in part on talent and in part due to a lack of alternatives, but the bottom line is that he's acclimated himself well. Since an opening-week loss at Louisville, Kaaya ranks eighth among Power 5 QBs in touchdowns (22), seventh in passer efficiency (157.5) and second in yards-per-attempt (9.20, trailing only Heisman favorite Marcus Mariota).  It's hard to argue with those results, and Kaaya's big arm combined with Miami's speed on the outside has helped the Hurricanes become one of the best big-play offenses in the nation. For the year, 10.3 percent of Miami's total offensive plays have gone for 20 yards or more -- the best of any Power 5 program and trailing only Marshall nationally.
Of course, this is partly based on scheme, too. Even last season, when Stephen Morris was considered a mediocre QB at best, his yards-per-attempt ranked 15th nationally (8.8). But Kaaya's talent and rapid growth as a passer have taken things to the next level, and as such, Miami has been happy to rely on that big-play threat -- often based off play-action -- to keep defenses honest. The problem, however, is that over the past few weeks, the Canes have seen diminished returns on the investment. After last week's loss to Virginia, Kaaya was quick to point out that the Hoos' blitz gave Miami problems. From the Miami Herald:
"I have to be better," Kaaya said. "I have to make better plays. If they are blitzing, so what? I take ownership, for this too."
The problem is, the blitz didn't fluster Kaaya too much -- at least judging by the numbers. Per ESPN Stats & Info, Kaaya was 5-of-9 for 117 yards, a touchdown and no picks against UVA's blitz, which was right about on par with his season averages against Power 5 squads (53 percent completions, 13.9 yards-per-attempt). In fact, since Week 2 against Florida A&M, Kaaya hasn't thrown a single interception against the opposition's blitz. Beating the blitz has arguably been his best asset. The problem against UVA, as it turned out, was the big-play threat -- or lack thereof. Kaaya was just 2-of-7 for 67 yards, one touchdown and one pick on throws of 15 yards or more. Forty-seven of those yards came on a bomb to Phillip Dorsett for Miami's only score, but beyond that, Miami offered little to no downfield threat the entire game. But if we examine Kaaya's season more closely, we'll see that's no coincidence. In Miami's six wins this season, Kaaya has been superb with the deep ball. In its four losses, he's struggled. It's also worth noting that Kaaya has completed just 30 percent of his deep balls (with two TDs and two picks) in his last four games. Perhaps the more relevant information is that, when Kaaya has struggled to throw deep (vs. Louisville, Nebraska, Florida State and UVA) are also the four games in which Duke Johnson has had his four lowest yards-per-rush numbers. The bottom line here should be pretty self-explanatory: Kaaya's a legitimate big-play threat, and as he gains experience he'll be even more dangerous. For now, it's tough to put too much of the game plan into his hands. He needs the help from the ground game to get play-action working, and when Miami hasn't moved the ball successfully on the ground, those big plays downfield aren't nearly so easy to find. What does all that mean for this week's matchup against Pitt? The Panthers have actually been pretty good at avoiding big plays. They rank 31st nationally in percentage of 20-yard plays allowed vs. FBS teams, but their defensive success against big plays has been cut in half during the last month. Pitt is also allowing 5.2 yards-per-carry in ACC play -- the worst number in the conference -- and its 14 sacks vs FBS foes ranks 108th nationally. So as Miami wraps up the regular season, this matchup bodes well for Kaaya and Co., which for Miami fans, should mean a disappointing season can at least end on a positive note.
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