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Will Virginia break streak vs. Virginia Tech?

Virginia Tech and Virginia are both off to 4-2 starts, one much more surprising than the other. Is this the season the Hoos break their 10-year losing streak to the rival Hokies on Nov. 28? Andrea Adelson and Matt Fortuna debate.

Andrea says: Virginia has closed the gap on Virginia Tech, no question. The Hoos are a good team; maybe even a great team, and that is a credit to coach Mike London and all his players. They are not going to surprise anybody the rest of the way.

But that does not mean they are going to waltz into Blacksburg at the end of the season and win. It is too early to make such bold declarations. Long losing streaks have this way of messing with people's heads. Look at Tennessee, everybody's pick to beat Florida last week. But that Gator voodoo worked on the Vols again, and Florida kept its 10-game winning streak alive.

Similarly, Virginia Tech has had the edge on Virginia for 10 straight years, and should have the edge again in November.

What is interesting is the way these two teams have used similar formulas to win. Both have strong, physical, aggressive defenses to help counterbalance inconsistent offenses. Both want to run the ball first, though neither has done that as effectively as they want. Neither has had elite quarterback play, either.

So you can already predict a low-scoring defensive battle for the end of November. In that case, you go with the team that has given up the fewest points and fewest yards. That remains Virginia Tech, by the slimmest margin.

Despite some of the big passing plays Virginia Tech has surrendered, its defensive front has been dominant for the most part. Five different players have three or more sacks; Virginia Tech leads the ACC with 26 sacks and has 48 tackles for loss. Virginia has put up similar numbers. Perhaps the biggest contrast, then is third-down defense.

The Hokies rank No. 2 in the nation in that category, allowing opponents to convert 24.1 percent of the time. Virginia is allowing conversions at a higher rate (36.4). So if Virginia Tech can shut down the inconsistent ground game and get pressure on whomever starts at quarterback, forcing Virginia into third-and-long situations, I like Virginia Tech's chances.

Of course, Michael Brewer is going to have to find a way to hold onto the football against an opportunistic Virginia defense. If he can do that, then Hokies fans should be able to count on yet another win.

Matt says: Given the appearance of the #ACCBlackCat, I think I win this argument by default from the start, no? Especially with this game being on Black Friday ...

Anyway, it's hard to not be impressed with all that Virginia has done through six games this season, as the Cavaliers are off to a 2-0 start in ACC play after most of us had written them off back in the summer. And they have done it, like you said, in a formula similar to that of Virginia Tech, to the point I think the Hoos are much better-suited for this sort of game.

Your point about Brewer gets right to it: The Hoos are 118th nationally in turnovers, with 14. Of course, that's just one more than what the Hokies have given up this year, but Virginia's defense has been able to make up for that by forcing 19 turnovers on the season, second-most nationally. It's not every day that you see a team with 14 turnovers rank in the top-21 in turnover margin, but that's how good the Hoos' defense has been so far, as the program is at plus-5 in that department, good for 21th nationally.

You mention the Hokies' 26 sacks, but the Hoos are just behind, with 23.

You mention Virginia's inconsistent ground game, but the Hoos (177 ypg) are actually better at running the ball than the Hokies (174 ypg), and they appeared to have turned a corner Saturday against Pitt, tallying 225 yards on the ground. That's more than can be said for Virginia Tech, which already has a very banged-up backfield and averaged just three yards per carry and had an unthinkable seven false start penalties against a horrific North Carolina defense.

I just feel much more comfortable about Virginia right now than I do Virginia Tech. Maybe that will change come the day after Thanksgiving. Maybe this game -- with apologies to Georgia Tech -- could decide the crazy Coastal division.

I'll go with Virginia. The Hoos pass the eye test for me through six weeks, and they should carry a much bigger chip on their shoulder entering this contest.