Golden Rule No. 1 when covering the ACC: No such thing as a guaranteed W.
That is why nearly the entire league is on Upset Watch headed into Week 6. Florida State gets a reprieve at home against Wake.
Friday
Louisville (4-1, 2-1) at Syracuse (2-2), 7 p.m., ESPN. Line: Louisville by 4. The last time the Cardinals took a trip to the Carrier Dome, they were unbeaten and ranked No. 9 in the country. They promptly lost, as Scott Shafer completely befuddled Teddy Bridgewater and company while serving as defensive coordinator. Shafer is now the head coach, though Louisville looks radically different than the team that came to town in 2012. The offense has been running in starts and stops, and quarterback remains up in the air. Meanwhile, Syracuse had some highlights on defense in a loss to Notre Dame that it can perhaps build upon headed into its league opener.
Saturday
Virginia Tech (3-2, 0-1) at North Carolina (2-2, 0-1), 12:30 p.m., ESPN3. Line: Virginia Tech by 1. As colleague David Hale points out, no Power 5 teams have allowed plays of 20-plus yards at a higher rate than Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Perhaps East Carolina has a little bit to do with that, a common opponent both teams lost to earlier in the season. North Carolina has allowed 120 points over its last two games, but nobody will ever confuse Virginia Tech's offense for East Carolina or Clemson. Given some of the shaky play in the Virginia Tech secondary, the Tar Heels will have an opportunity to make some plays in the pass game. Marquise Williams showed he could do that against the Tigers. We are still waiting to see that consistently out of Michael Brewer and Virginia Tech.
NC State (4-1, 0-1) at Clemson (2-2, 1-1), 3:30 p.m., ESPNU. Line: Clemson by 14. Based on Jacoby Brissett's performance against Florida State, the Wolfpack cannot be counted out against the Tigers -- especially after North Carolina exposed some flaws in the Clemson pass defense. North Carolina threw for nearly 400 yards last week. Now comes Brissett, who threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns – without an interception -- on Florida State The Wolfpack generally play Clemson close, too, and this one could end up being a shootout, just like the last time NC State visited Death Valley.
Miami (3-2, 1-1) at Georgia Tech (4-0, 1-0), 7:30 p.m., ESPN2. Line: Miami by 1. The Hurricanes put forth a far better defensive effort in a win over Duke, though they will be put to a far bigger test against the Jackets. Can Miami continue to tackle as well as it did last week against Duke, especially given the way Georgia Tech runs the ball? Brad Kaaya has shown the ability to make some plays, and has improved each passing week. The opportunities against an inconsistent Georgia Tech D will be there, but the Jackets have proven to be a team that has the most resilience in the ACC. Justin Thomas also is an upgrade over Vad Lee, so the Miami D must remain on alert.
Pitt (3-2, 1-0) at Virginia (3-2, 1-0), 7:30 p.m., ESPN3. Line: Virginia by 5. Bet nobody expected the Hoos to be favored in this game when the season began. While Virginia has looked like the better team to date, Pitt has played extremely well at times this season. Yes the Panthers are coming in off two straight losses, but they do have one of the top running backs and receivers in the ACC. If James Conner can get going and Chad Voytik can make some plays to Tyler Boyd, Pitt will have an opportunity to pull the upset.